Re: What guarantee do we have of scientific method?

From: Ogie Oglethorpe (boogieloogie_at_gmail.com)
Date: 12/09/04 

Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 08:27:35 -0400

|-|erc wrote:
>> 1. If x is psychic -> then x will pass Randi test.
>> 2. No x has passed the Randi test.
>> 3. Thus, no x is psychic.
>
>
>>But if as Herc suggests it is the case that
>>
>> 1. If x is psychic -> then x isn't tested by Randi.
>>
>>then even if 2 ('no x has passed the Randi test') is also the case we
>>cannot derive 3, e.g., we cannot infer that no x is psychic.
>
>
>>his rejection of applicants is not based on good reason, then the Randi
>>challenge isn't a valid test and the lack of winners means nothing.
>>
>>
>>-paul
>
>
>
> Just to summarise your excellent formal conclusions Paul. Might 1a be
> If x takes Randi psychic test & x is psychic -> then x will pass Randi test.
> For a consistent model, though your alternate versions of rule 1 also work for the analysis.
>
> Herc
>
> --
> 3 years without a joint, a screw, a drink, a coffee, a smoke, a steak, a roast,
> a visit, going out, buying other than food, a quiet moment, a drive, a workout, a run..
> being your Truman is so much fun
>
>
>
how about this:

to be considered psychic X must pass Randi.

possible outcomes:

fail - therefore not psychic
pass - therefore a psychic

failure to take test and call yourself a psychic

possible reasons

Work for the con artist Madame Cleo
A bonafide wacko
Too many drugs

No one has won the million bucks yet
Conclusion - there are no psychics

Ogie

RULES OF THE GAME:

THE TWELVE OFFICIAL RULES GOVERNING THE JREF CHALLENGE:

I, James Randi, through the JREF, will pay US$1,000,000 to any person
who can demonstrate any psychic, supernatural or paranormal ability
under satisfactory observing conditions. Such demonstration must take
place under these rules and limitations.

    1. This is the primary and most important of these rules: Applicant
must state clearly in advance, and applicant and JREF will agree upon,
what powers or abilities will be demonstrated, the limits of the
proposed demonstration (so far as time, location and other variables are
concerned) and what will constitute both a positive and a negative
result. This is the primary and most important of these rules.
    2. Only an actual performance of the stated nature and scope, within
the agreed-upon limits, will be accepted. Anecdotal accounts of previous
events are not accepted or considered. We consult competent
statisticians when an evaluation of the results, or experiment design,
is required. We have no interest in theories or explanations of how the
claimed powers might work; if you provide us with such material, it will
be ignored and discarded.
    3. Applicant agrees that all data (photographic, recorded, written,
etc.) gathered as a result of the testing may be used freely by the JREF.
    4. No part of the testing procedure may be changed in any way
without the agreement of all parties concerned. JR may be present at
some preliminary or formal tests, but will not interact with the
materials used.
    5. In all cases, applicant will be required to perform the
preliminary test either before an appointed representative, if distance
and time dictate that need, or in a location where a member of the JREF
staff can attend. This preliminary test is to determine if the applicant
is likely to perform as promised during a formal test. To date, no
applicant has passed the preliminary test, and this has eliminated the
need for formal testing in those cases. There is no limit on the number
of times an applicant may re-apply, but re-application can take place
only after 12 months have elapsed since the preliminary test.
    6. All expenses such as transportation, accommodation, materials,
assistants, and/or all other costs for any persons or procedures
incurred in pursuit of the reward, are the sole responsibility of the
applicant. Neither the JREF nor JR will bear any of the costs.
    7. When entering into this challenge, the applicant surrenders any
and all rights to legal action against Mr. Randi, against any persons
peripherally involved, and against the James Randi Educational
Foundation, as far as this may be done by established statutes. This
applies to injury, accident, or any other damage of a physical or
emotional nature, and/or financial or professional loss, or damage of
any kind. However, this rule in no way affects the awarding of the prize.
    8. At the formal test, in advance, an independent person will be
placed in charge of a personal check from James Randi for US$10,000. In
the event that the claimant is successful under the agreed terms and
conditions, that check shall be immediately surrendered to the claimant,
and within ten days the James Randi Educational Foundation will pay to
the claimant the remainder of the reward, for a total of US$1,000,000.
One million dollars in negotiable bonds is held by an investment firm in
New York, in the "James Randi Educational Foundation Prize Account" as
surety for the prize funds. Validation of this account and its current
status may be obtained by contacting the Foundation by telephone, fax,
or e-mail.
    9. Copies of this form are available free of charge to any person
who sends the required SSAE, marked on the outside, "Challenge
Application," requesting it, or it can be downloaded from the Internet,
at www.randi.org/research/challenge.html
   10. This offer is made by James Randi through the JREF, on the behalf
of no other person, agency or organization. Although others may become
involved in the examination of claims and may add their reward money to
the total in certain circumstances, James Randi (via the JREF) will
carry out the implementation and management of the challenge. JREF will
not entertain any demand that the prize money be deposited in escrow,
displayed in cash, or otherwise produced in advance of the test being
performed. JREF will not cater to such vanities.
   11. This offer is open to any and all persons, in any part of the
world, regardless of gender, race, educational background, etc., and
will continue in effect until the prize is awarded. Upon the death of
James Randi, the administration of the prize will pass into other hands,
and it is intended that it continue in force.
   12. EVERY APPLICANT MUST AGREE UPON WHAT WILL CONSTITUTE A CONCLUSION
THAT, ON THE OCCASION OF THE FORMAL TEST, HE OR SHE DID OR DID NOT
DEMONSTRATE THE CLAIMED ABILITY OR POWER. This form must be accompanied
by a brief, two-paragraph description of what will constitute the
demonstration.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: What guarantee do we have of scientific method?
    ... No x has passed the Randi test. ... Conclusion - there are no psychics ... THE TWELVE OFFICIAL RULES GOVERNING THE JREF CHALLENGE: ... Applicant agrees that all data (photographic, recorded, written, ...
    (sci.physics)
  • Re: What guarantee do we have of scientific method?
    ... > to be considered psychic X must pass Randi. ... > Conclusion - there are no psychics ... > THE TWELVE OFFICIAL RULES GOVERNING THE JREF CHALLENGE: ... Claimaint downloads application form ...
    (sci.logic)
  • Re: What guarantee do we have of scientific method?
    ... > to be considered psychic X must pass Randi. ... > Conclusion - there are no psychics ... > THE TWELVE OFFICIAL RULES GOVERNING THE JREF CHALLENGE: ... Claimaint downloads application form ...
    (sci.physics)
  • Re: What guarantee do we have of scientific method?
    ... >>Publicity. ... Any applicant who is refused by Randi will make a big ... > Good answer, but what credibility do psychics have, they are ... You don't get it - all an applicant has to do is offer the exact same ...
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  • Re: Homeopathich dose
    ... of Ben Goldacre or the "amazing" Randi, ... does not claim to be scientific research: ... with the participation and approval of the applicant. ...
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