Re: Nickel Iron Bonanza


"mytg8" <mytg8@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1125669947.564247.230420@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Greetings-
>
> I am a Science Fiction writer and have a couple of chapters (of a work
> in progress) based on the following premise. As is obvious, I know
> little or nothing about any phase of the metals market. The
> protagonist, through various means (this is science fiction, remember;
> I have a lot of leeway--er--miraculous happenings going on) :-).
>
> Anyway, the situation is this- the protag has at his disposal roughly
> 100 trillion (million millions; ie, Teratons) of M-class asteroid
> nickel-iron. It's crushed, of very high purity (or so the scientific
> speculation of such asteroids claims), and is stored? in a readily
> accessible area, say, assume near railroads, uh... near Pittsburgh, or
> some steel center here in the US. This has been carried out by what we
> SF guys call Handwavium, with a capital aitch. One heck of a lot of
> high-grade nickel iron(12-15 trillion cubic meters), more or less ready
> for processing; ready for the mill. The protag owns it all, and is
> willing to sell it cheap. Say, just off the top of my head, a buck a
> ton. ;-)
>
> If you are still reading :-), would you please give your opinion on
> what would now happen under the above...er...assumptions--
>
> Could this massive amount of metal be processed by, say an upgrade of
> existing facilities in the USA?
>
> More importantly, would the market implode because of the huge
> infusement of raw product? Or is an idea of a market saturation crash
> really too simplistic?
>
> My own naive assessment is that the industry could upgrade, and
> accordingly turn the situation into a sort of revolution that mirrors
> the US steel market in the mid twentieth century, e.g., steel products
> replacing much of what is now made of plastic? A wild idea, to be
> sure.
>
> Thanks for your time.
>
> crs
>
Initial thoughts

Metal scrap (usually) needs to be processed by electric arc furnace.
http://www.uksteel.org.uk/stlmake3.htm

This is not much use to the BOS route manufacturers, about 63% of world
production capacity. (The BOS route does use some scrap but some of this is
self arising).

If your scrap is free who will pay for disposing of all the steel scrap that
is now worthless?

The iron ore miners will not like you, but their coal (and other metal)
mining interests would benefit. (In the current shortage of raw material
supply, coal is probably more of a problem than scrap or iron ore). What are
the get-out clauses in the multi year supply contracts like?

EAF production needs electricity. What is your handwavium power source?
Where is electricity cheap?

What alloys are you going to make? If austenitic stainless steel then you
will need chromium in very large quantities. There are many thousands of
steel grades in use, very few of these are anywhere near the composition of
your alloys. Will people be able to use your alloys for their applications,
for many applications probably not. You might be unable to make tin cans or
car body panels for instance.

If steel products were cheaper then people would use more of it, but
historically (although not necessarily at the moment) scrap steel input
costs have not been the main part of the cost of producing steel products.
Processing iron into products, transport, and handling and cutting by
distributors are also big chunks of cost. If scrap steel were free in one
location in USA how much cheaper would steel be, uneducated guess no less
than half price in the USA, 25% by the time it reaches China, less for more
heavily processed products e.g. painted steel *** for washing machines? In
some markets, free steel scrap might do no more than make USA steel costs
the same as those of the currently lowest cost international producers
(Asian / South American).

Did you notice the effect of the large increases in steel costs over the
last couple of years? Would you notice if these price increases were
reversed?

Other countries threatened by steel imports from USA would probably do what
the USA and other countries have done / do and protect their home suppliers
by import tariffs or quotas.

The cost of converting steel products to consumer items are generally higher
than the cost of the raw materials. Plastic would be replaced by steel in
your car, but your car would be perhaps only $100 cheaper.
You would not notice the difference, do you check to see if the oil filter
or petrol tank on your car is made of metal or plastic. You might notice if
the bumper went back to metal from plastic but with today's painted styles
probably not even then.
Steel cans might replace aluminium cans for drinks, but can you tell the
difference.
Steel framed buildings might replace wood framed and concrete framed. But
exterior cladding is more sensitive to fashion and probably would not change
as easily.

The cost of machining to make some things in steel, would be more than the
cost of making it in plastic. Complicated shaped items that do not need to
be strong, but need a smooth finish.

Steel intensive massive projects might move to USA. Perhaps an increase in
shipbuilding or something similar.













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