Re: 640,000,000,000 TO 1

From: Sylvia Else (sylvia_at_not.at.this.address)
Date: 09/01/04 

Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 09:02:15 +1000

Paul Nutteing wrote:

> First point, male mutation rate higher than female.
> Second although mainly between 0.01 and 0.3 percent there are
> 20 such possibilities in each UK DNA profile
>
> At the moment used aa a fudge for prosecuting people
> when there are mismatches between suspect anbd crime scene
> profiles. They do not further test to nail down mutations.
> How more corrupt can you get than that.

There's no reason to assume that further testing will help. For example,
if the crime scene sample is a small clump of skin cells, then the
mutation may be on a very small area somewhere on the suspect's body.
It's hardly practical to go over the entire body surface taking samples
every half millimetre.

Even with 20 matches, the result is simply expressed as a probability.
If there's one mismatch, and given that mutations clearly occur, the
result is just a different (albeit higher) probability that the sample
did not come from the suspect.

So the court has to form a view about whether the probability is low
enough not to constitute reasonable doubt.

Sylvia.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Is "(Random Mutation) + (Natural Selection) => Complexity" Scientific?
    ... probability of a mutation occurring in an individual in a year is p, ... That is a better analogy for the evolution of complexity; just like there are many combinations of 10 people in the town, there are many combinations of 10 mutations that produce complexity; and the mutations occur over a period of time, interspersed with other mutations. ... It is not the same as the probability of organisms with cooperating and organised organs and systems arising. ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Request
    ... >> how chromosomes are consistently the same for any group of life forms. ... But before you were talking about the usefulness of probability ... you were talking about random mutations as ... random mutations, ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Is "(Random Mutation) + (Natural Selection) => Complexity" Scientific?
    ... >> You can't just assert that the probability is extremely low. ... How can it be otherwise if all mutations are assumed ... Consider the lottery - the chance of any ... the chance of speciation involving one particular set of N ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Hardy-weinberg Equilibrium
    ... Mutations do not alter the gene pool. ... while panmixis means equal probability of any ... But suppose we assumed a normal distribution? ... Are you claiming that statistical randomness requires a uniform ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Some more Bull****! Whats the 1.2-5% dna Diff! (Chimp to man)
    ... probability of getting a 3 or a heads is the complement of (same as 1 ... Both have accumulated mutations since then. ... as far as I can tell, a transcript from a human genome. ...
    (talk.origins)
Quantcast