Re: Two children paradox
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Date: 11/06/04
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Date: Sat, 6 Nov 2004 17:40:51 +0000 (UTC)
In article <O57jd.71445$OD2.49393@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net>,
"N. Silver" <mathelp@worldnet.att.net> writes:
>phil wrote:
>
>> If I tell you that I have two children and one is a boy,
>> you may infer that the probability that I have one boy
>> and one girl is 2/3.
>
>The statement has eliminated the possibility of GG.
>
>> If I tell you that I have two children and one is a girl,
>> you may also infer that the probability that I have one
>> boy and one girl is 2/3.
>
>Now this statement has eliminated the possibility of BB.
>
>> So it seems that no matter what I tell you,...
>
>What you tell us *does* matter.
>It's not "no matter what I tell you."
>2/3 and 1/3 are not zero. There is no paradox.
Yes, but in the absence of any further information, the probability
that a two-child family is BG is 1/2, not 2/3.
The OP is arguing that it is in all cases possible to make a statement that
results in the probability of BG being 2/3. If that were true, then we
certainly would have a paradox.
But in fact it is not possible to make such a statement in all cases!
Derek Holt.
>> the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 2/3.
>> And I can always tell you one of these two statements.
>> Hmmm.
>
>
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