Re: I need FALSE PROOFS!!

tbonepower07_at_gmail.com
Date: 12/27/04 

Date: 27 Dec 2004 14:29:15 -0800

I do not understand the ideas going into this System-Analyst Paradox.
Although I may be wrong, it seems like everyone is thinking too hard.

First of all, the ignorant person does nothing that will help him know
the actual value of b. He is just using an elaborate system of
quessing. He is randomly picking the value of p, ergo he will still be
randomly guessing the value of b. The probability should of him being
right should still be 50%.

Secondly, noone has yet considered the possibility that a = p or b = p.
Assuming the a != b, the guesser's chance of success via the 'p'
method will be slightly less than 50%. He will then will have to
randomly guess via another method whether b < a or b < a. His chance
of success will then be 50%, and these two numbers will balance each
other out.

Assuming the range of numbers is 0 to n, chance of success is...
lim[n > oo] of
= 0.5 * (n - 1)/n * 100% +0.5 * 1/n * 100%
= 0.5 * 100% * ([n - 1]/n + 1/n)
= 50% * n/n
= 50% * 1
= 50%

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