Re: Amazing story - Roulette Scanning

From: Lynn Kurtz (kurtzDELETE-THIS_at_asu.edu)
Date: 12/05/04 

Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 22:52:36 GMT

On Sun, 5 Dec 2004 15:23:36 -0500, "Greg Neill"
<gneillREM@OVE.THIS.netcom.ca> wrote:

>Also, in order to gain an advantage at the table it's not necessary
>to predict exactly the number the ball will end up on. It is sufficient
>to narrow it down to a small group of likely endings and bet accordingly.
>

Actually, narrowing it down to even half the outcomes would give a
huge edge.

About 25 years ago some colleagues and I spent some time on the
theory. Our idea was to pick a specific wheel, make a lookup table for
its number sequence, and take some data to model an exponential decay
motion for both the ball and wheel. We assumed one could
surreptitiously measure in real time the time for one revolution of
the ball and one revolution of the 00, and that one could place a bet
after things were in motion. We could solve for the theoretical hit
point, and if the ball didn't bounce to badly too often, it should
give us an edge.

We got it as far as actually taking some measurements on a wheel not
located in a casino and our observations were:

1. Many times the ball does drop in a neighborhood of where you would
expect, i.e, the obstructions and randomness didn't seem to be a
killer.

2. What did seem to be a killer was the sensitivity of the calculated
result to the errors in the delta-t time measurements. We had been
thinking in terms of human reaction times when milliseconds mattered.

3. And, of course, the slight problem of how to implement it and get
away with it. They probably wouldn't let us set up our equipment on
their wheel :-)

But it was fun and interesting anyway.

--Lynn

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