Re: Interesting Statistics Puzzle.
From: José Carlos Santos (jcsantos_at_fc.up.pt)
Date: 02/27/05
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Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 15:14:34 +0000
David wrote:
> I am trying to track down the origin and solution to this
> statistics puzzle. Here is what I have so far:
>
> You are on a game show. Three doors for final prize. Behind
> ONE door is a car, behind the other TWO doors is nothing.
> You choose one door. The host now opens one of the doors
> you did NOT choose and shows nothing behind the door. The
> question is: do you now change your choice of doors or stick
> with your original choice.
>
> Apparently most mathematicians think the choice NOW is 50/50
> so it doesn't matter. To me, this makes sense is the solution
> to the puzzle.
>
> Yet, some argue that you definitely SHOULD change your choice
> and that there is a 2/3 chance of you getting the car IF you
> do change your choice. I don't know the logic or reasoning
> behind this argument.
Actually, every mathematician *knows* that you should change.
This is a very old puzzle. Do a Google search with the words
"Monty Hall" and you'll get lots of explanations.
Best regards,
Jose Carlos Santos
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