Re: a ESP test (statistical problem)
- From: "Pablo C." <Pablo.Costi@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 14:36:36 +0200
riparian wrote:
A ESP test (extra sensory perception) is carried like this:
From a deck of cards were chosen 5 cards. These cards were seen by both the conductor of the experiment and a person. The cards were laid on the table with the back side upwards in such a way that only the conductor of the experiment knew the sequence of the cards. The conductor chosed a card and the person should then say which card it was. In a sequence of 100 experiments the person answered correctly 37 times.
Is there reason to believe that this person has special supernatural powers?
Hi riparian,
I would say it's easy to simulate. All the experiments seem to be "unconditioned", that is, it seems that the experiment person has a 1/5 Probability each time of success.
try to simulate it with MATLAB, for example, in order to get always a '1' in each experiment (supposing that this is the card which the conducer takes).
I think 37/100 it's a high probability but not necessary to high. It must be checked with real simulation. Only results clearly above these simulations would show special powers which can control the chaos of the probability.
Greetings, Pablo
.
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