Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
- From: "Elmo" <elmoritz@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 9 Oct 2005 13:18:16 -0700
45. David C. Ullrich Oct 9, 9:33 am show options
Newsgroups: sci.math
From: David C. Ullrich <ullr...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> - Find messages by
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Date: Sun, 09 Oct 2005 09:33:39 -0500
Local: Sun, Oct 9 2005 9:33 am
Subject: Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
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On Sun, 9 Oct 2005 10:59:55 +0000 (UTC),
Ullrich said>
Exactly what is the difference in meaning between
"Two coins were flipped and at least one is a head. What
are the chances that there are two heads?"
and
"The probability for two heads, given at least one head?"
Elmo started here:
Two coins were flipped and at least one is a head: That is a statement
made about a two coin toss. The coins were tossed and the statement was
made. A statement about one, two coin toss.
"The probability for two heads, given at least one head" is a
mathematical definition. It is precisely defined by a mathematical
formula. It is made about a toss, or a series of tosses. It is defined
by P(B) equals 3/4.
We can make the given statement prior to the toss. Suppose that we make
the "given at least one head" statement, then toss and get tt. We can
say "two coins were tossed and at least one is a tail". That's a true
statement. It does not mean the same thing as "given at least one
tail."
Eldon
.
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