Re: Me and David C. Ullrich


Jesse F. Hughes wrote:
> "Elmo" <elmoritz@xxxxxxxxx> writes:
>
> > We can say:
> > 1.Two coins were flipped. We know because our statement told us so.
> > 2.All we know about the coin flip, we learned from the statement.
> > 3.We know that TT did not happen.
> > 4.We know that HH happened, and the statement was made, or, HT happened
> > and the statement was made, or, TH happened and the statement was made.
> > 5.Two coins were tossed is a statement of fact.
> > 6."At least one is a head" is a conditional statement.
>
> I have held my tongue until now, but in what reasonable sense is "at
> least one is a head" a conditional statement? It is no less factual
> than "two coins were tossed."
>
> Utterly bizarre.
>
> Conditional statements are statements of the form: If X then Y. Or Y,
> given X. Or Y only if X. Or....
>
> "At least one is a head" is not a stinking conditional statement.

Eldon has been obsessing about this probability calculation
for years.

See, for instance, this page from 1998:
http://www.wiskit.com/marilyn/boys.html

I think his answer would be something like "You don't know
the conditions under which the person would tell you that
at least one is a head. In the case HT/TH, they might
be equally likely to say that one is a tail."

He has severe problems with the idea of "given" and insists
on constructing elaborate behavioral scenarios involving
the means by which you obtain the information that at
least one is a head.

- Randy

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
    ... Jesse F. Hughes wrote: ... >> 5.Two coins were tossed is a statement of fact. ... > "At least one is a head" is not a stinking conditional statement. ... Even though I'm not a mathematician, Dr. Gray keeps from running around ...
    (sci.math)
  • Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
    ... Richard Tobin wrote: ... And could you define "conditional statement" so that I ... We know that two coins were tossed, and that there are four equally ... We wish to know the probability for two Heads on condition that we were ...
    (sci.math)
  • Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
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  • Re: My mind is not easily boggled, but...
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