Re: Me and David C. Ullrich


Jesse F. Hughes wrote:
> "Elmo" <elmoritz@xxxxxxxxx> writes:
>
> > We can say:
> > 1.Two coins were flipped. We know because our statement told us so.
> > 2.All we know about the coin flip, we learned from the statement.
> > 3.We know that TT did not happen.
> > 4.We know that HH happened, and the statement was made, or, HT happened
> > and the statement was made, or, TH happened and the statement was made.
> > 5.Two coins were tossed is a statement of fact.
> > 6."At least one is a head" is a conditional statement.
>
> I have held my tongue until now, but in what reasonable sense is "at
> least one is a head" a conditional statement? It is no less factual
> than "two coins were tossed."
>
> Utterly bizarre.
>
> Conditional statements are statements of the form: If X then Y. Or Y,
> given X. Or Y only if X. Or....
>
> "At least one is a head" is not a stinking conditional statement.
>
Jesse,
I am not a mathematician. I have about 25 hours of college math. I am
an intelligent person who has spent a lot of time on this one question.


Dr. H.L. Gray, chaired Professor of Mathematical Statistics at SMU in
Dallas, told me that "two coins were tossed" is a statement of fact. He
also said that, "at least one is a head" is a conditional statement.

We know that two coins were tossed because the statement told us so.
It's a statement of fact.

On the condition that we were told "at least one is a head" we wish to
know if HH, and HT are still equally likely. Sounds like a stinking
conditional statement to me.

Even though I'm not a mathematician, Dr. Gray keeps from running around
completely without adult supervision.

Suppose that two coins were tossed and they landed TT. The statement
was generated, "Two coins were tossed and at least one is a tail."
Bruce only heard the statement, he bet one token for two tails, he will
win. What odds should he collect?

Randy is wrong, I don't know, or care who made the statement. I only
know that the statement exists, and it constitutes the entire question.

Eldon



> --
> Jesse F. Hughes
> "That's what's brutal about mathematics! When you're wrong, you can
> have spent years, and lots of effort, and come out at the end with
> nothing." -- James S. Harris on the path of self-discovery (?)

.