Re: Me and David C. Ullrich


Randy Poe wrote:
> Jesse F. Hughes wrote:
> > "Elmo" <elmoritz@xxxxxxxxx> writes:
> >
> > > We can say:
> > > 1.Two coins were flipped. We know because our statement told us so.
> > > 2.All we know about the coin flip, we learned from the statement.
> > > 3.We know that TT did not happen.
> > > 4.We know that HH happened, and the statement was made, or, HT happened
> > > and the statement was made, or, TH happened and the statement was made.
> > > 5.Two coins were tossed is a statement of fact.
> > > 6."At least one is a head" is a conditional statement.
> >
> > I have held my tongue until now, but in what reasonable sense is "at
> > least one is a head" a conditional statement? It is no less factual
> > than "two coins were tossed."
> >
> > Utterly bizarre.
> >
> > Conditional statements are statements of the form: If X then Y. Or Y,
> > given X. Or Y only if X. Or....
> >
> > "At least one is a head" is not a stinking conditional statement.
>
> Eldon has been obsessing about this probability calculation
> for years.
>
> See, for instance, this page from 1998:
> http://www.wiskit.com/marilyn/boys.html
>
> I think his answer would be something like "You don't know
> the conditions under which the person would tell you that
> at least one is a head. In the case HT/TH, they might
> be equally likely to say that one is a tail."
>
> He has severe problems with the idea of "given" and insists
> on constructing elaborate behavioral scenarios involving
> the means by which you obtain the information that at
> least one is a head.
>
> - Randy

Randy, I have no problem with "given". I have a problem with people who
see the term "at least one" and rush to the formula for "given at least
one."

I've quit this question several times, but people send me emails about
it, and I get going again. I spend a lot of time hanging around
airports, with internet access. Through the process, I've gotten to be
the world's foremost authority on this question. If you think I don't
understand this question, read and understand what I've written on it.
Eldon

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
    ... >Randy Poe wrote: ... >> Eldon has been obsessing about this probability calculation ... >> at least one is a head. ... I spend a lot of time hanging around ...
    (sci.math)
  • Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
    ... That's a conditional statement. ... >>Can you explain this distinction? ... Two coins were flipped and at least one is a head. ... Prior to the flip the flipper was instructed to say ...
    (sci.math)
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