Re: Me and David C. Ullrich


Elmo wrote:
> sugnaboris@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
> > Elmo wrote:
> > > On this forum I have argued the question, "Two coins were flipped and
> > > at least one is a head. What are the chances that there are two heads?"

<snip>

> > If you accept that this meets your criteria, then it will be very easy
> > to settle the discussion with a real-coin or computerized simulation;
> > if you don't accept it, could you please propose your own experiment in
>
> > equivalent terms?
> If you will read a little further, we are examining the difference
> between, "Two coins were flipped and at least one is a head", and "Two
> coins were flipped, given that there is at least one head." I will
> accept your program for "given at least one head." It's easy to see
> that it will give 1/3.

<snip>

Yes, but the point of my proposing an experiment, then asking you to
propose your own experiment in equivalent terms, was to give you an
opportunity to define *exactly* what you mean in unambiguous terms that
can be checked experimentally. If you can't describe an experiment in
this way, then it seems to me that you have no proper definition of
what you mean.

Can you describe the experiment that would give a probability of 1/2 in
the same sort of detail that I gave for the 1/3 case? If you can, I am
happy to run a simulation for you. However, as you are no doubt aware,
setting up an experiment of this sort requires all steps to be
described completely unambiguously, and in an imperaitve/procedural
fashion.

Look forward to seeing your experiment proposal.

.

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