Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
- From: "Elmo" <elmoritz@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 13 Oct 2005 20:33:54 -0700
J wrote:
> Eldon, it wasn't decided to make a "tails" statement. Here's what you
> wrote at the top post of this thread:
>
> " On this forum I have argued the question, "Two coins were flipped and
>
> at least one is a head. What are the chances that there are two heads?"
> "
>
> You confuse posters by reading more into this problem than is already
> there. Probability problems are difficult enough. Let's ask Dave Rusin,
> an expert in Probability Theory on this forum, to give us the
> definitive answer to this problem as posed by you. Maybe he will help
> us, maybe not. Dave?
>
> Cordially,
>
> J
When we have, "Two coins were tossed, and at least one is a tail." We
have the same arguments.(Here we can say that tails were chosen)
At least one is a head, heads were chosen.
At least one is a male, males were chosen.
Two true false questions, at least one is false, false was chosen.
Two dice were rolled, at least one is odd, odd was chosen.
There is always a choosing. The timing of this choosing is significant.
There is always some kind of inspection.
To get 1/3, make the choosing, prior to the inspection.
Make the choosing after the inspection, get a half. When they just
assume this to be the other question, they can never get the correct
answer to this question.
You're right J, the timing is significant.
Eldon
.
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