Re: Me and David C. Ullrich

On 13 Oct 2005 06:00:02 -0700, "Elmo" <elmoritz@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>
>> >> - Randy
>> >
>> >Randy, I have no problem with "given". I have a problem with people who
>> >see the term "at least one" and rush to the formula for "given at least
>> >one."
>> >
>> >I've quit this question several times, but people send me emails about
>> >it, and I get going again. I spend a lot of time hanging around
>> >airports, with internet access. Through the process, I've gotten to be
>> >the world's foremost authority on this question. If you think I don't
>> >understand this question, read and understand what I've written on it.
>>
>> Um. Even you should realize that this last bit is just silly.
>> The reason people think you don't understand this question is
>> exactly _because_ of the things you've written about it!
>>
>> I mean really, why else would people come to that conclusion?
>> (Correctly or not...)
>>
>> >Eldon
>>
>Dr. Ullrich,
>
>This is about as much as you have added to our arguments.

Yes.

>You are a PhD. You have to have some talent. You could add to this
>argument if you would.

Yes I could. I determined long ago that there's simply no
point in discussing this with you. You _still_ seem to
be under the impression that I'm under some obligation to
do so. That's simply not true.

>Start with:
>Two coins were tossed. They landed HH, or they landed TT, or they
>landed HT, or TH.
>When they landed HH, "at least one is a head" was stated, or, when they
>landed TT, "at least one is a tail was stated." Does that get the same
>result as "Two coins were flipped, given at least one head?"
>You won't understand the argument because you don't like me. One of the
>first rules of debating is, understand the other guy's argument. You
>have given no indication of understanding my arguments.
>
>When all we have is the "at least one is" statement, the answer is 1/2.
>If mathematicians wish to have "given at least one" mean the same
>thing, they need to change the definition. Given at least one is the
>mathematical definition. Either change it, or accept that "at least one
>is" is different.
>
>Two coins were tossed on the table they landed TT. The statement was
>generated, "Two coins were tossed and at least one is a tail." A bettor
>bet for two tails, he will win. What odds should he collect?
>
>Two coins were tossed and they landed HH. The statement was "at least
>one is a head". The bettor for two heads wins. What odds should he
>collect?
>
>Those two statements were generated after inspection.
>
>Two coins were tossed, given at least one head, the probability for two
>heads is 1/3. Given at least one tail, the probability for two tails is
>1/3.
>
>Those two statements were made, prior to inspection. That's the
>difference.
>
>Get off your high horse and understand that. After you understand it,
>then argue with it.
>
>Eldon
>>
>> ************************
>>
>> David C. Ullrich


************************

David C. Ullrich
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
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  • Re: Me and David C. Ullrich
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