Re: Me and David C. Ullrich


Richard Tobin wrote:
> In article <1129152107.751393.236340@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> Randy Poe <poespam-trap@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> >I think his answer would be something like "You don't know
> >the conditions under which the person would tell you that
> >at least one is a head. In the case HT/TH, they might
> >be equally likely to say that one is a tail."
>
> This is a reasonable concern.
>
> But it's equally true that you don't know the conditions under which
> they will tell you that two coins were tossed. (Maybe they only do it
> when they both come down heads.)
>
> -- Richard
If there was a prejudice toward either H or T, it should be part of the
problem statement.

We know that the coins were tossed, and the statement was made.

We know that the coins landed HH and the statement was made, or,
the coins landed HT and the statement was made, or,
the coins landed TH and the statement was made.

We know that the writer of the statement observed Hx, or xH. We have no
evidence that the writer knows anything about coin x.

Eldon

.

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