Re: ? crim and math

> > > > > Here is the most fair verson. No death penalty per say, but fix
the
> > > > > prison at its current capacity. When capacity+1 inmate arrives at
> > > > > prison, the one who's been there the longest gets immediately
> > > > > executed in order to free up a bed. Eliminate parole and use
realistic
> > > > > sentences. Thus, someone with a 20-year sentence will survive if
> > > > > and only if the turnover rate at the prison over twenty years is
less
> > > > > than the prison capacity. Society is thus blameless for said
criminal
> > > > > being executed, the blame falls on the criminal population.
> > > > >
> > > > > And every one of the short term criminals will watch his place in
line
> > > > > for execution get shorter and shorter. If he manages to get out
before
> > > > > being executed, he'll think twice about going back, particulary if
> > > > > repeat
> > > > > offenders automatically get longer sentences.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Well, that is indeed one solution. Since we are in sci.math
newsgroup
> > > >
> > > > can you pack the above with some math theories.
> > >
> > > Sure, calculate the mean time it takes a criminal to go from
> > > the start of the line to the end.
> > >
> > > Or if you want to make it a problem in probability and make it
> > > more fun for the prison population, execute a prisoner at random.
> > > But when you put all the marbles with the prisoners names in
> > > the urn, put a quantity of marbles for each year of sentence,
> > > so that the murderers get 20 marbles and the car thieves get 1.
> > > And rather than parole for good behaviour, you could let them
> > > have 1 less marble in the urn.
> > >
> > > The math possiblities are endless.
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > thanks,
> > > > by Cheng Cosine
> > > > Dec/31/2k5 NC
> >
> >
> >
> > I have a few insights which might help, but I think that you will need
> > to consider more parameters than traditional punish/reward regime.
> >
> > There are some people who will commit their crime regardless of the
> > severity of the punishment. Many people are this way, or could fall
> > into a thought pattern which precipitates that type of action. The
> > Romans crucified thousands of people, but there were still many people
> > who were not dissuaded by their tortures. The inquisition tortured
> > many, many people, but such atrocities did not achieve whatever it was
> > that they had intended. Christians were fed to the lions, and today
> > there are more Christians on the planet than any other religion.
> >
> > I just dont see the death penalty as being a very effective deterrent.
> > It's great for retribution, but accomplishes very little for
> > deterrence, and for some people, the more extreme the punishment you
> > have - the more likely they will be to offend. The DP may actually
> > encourage crime - I truly believe this - that some people actually
> > commit suicide by means of death penalty.
> >
> > If you actually intend to solve some social problems, your model would
> > be very difficult to construct. I think that the solution which you are
> > after exists, but is much more complex than what you've got thus far.
> >
> > Good luck on that.
>
> I think there is little danger that I will ever be in charge of
> such matters. On the other hand, I see no future in the OP's
> probability function either. I assume that from your comments
> above that you don't accept his premise either?
>


His model might be OK, based on the assumptions it makes, but I do question
the assumptions.

I think that if you could measure things like hate, fear, hope, misery,
happiness, etc, then maybe you could build a good model that really works.
The great failure of academia is the fact that we pretend to be able to
estimate or even measure these things, when in fact we cannot and never will
be able to.

We (US) have 2.5 million people behind bars. This is nearly equal to the
population of Chicago. It is more than twice the population of Dallas or
Detroit. About 1/3 the population of NYC. This is almost as many people who
claimed Native American ancestry on the 2000 census. This is alot of people.

I wish that I could say that we, as a society, are moving in the general
direction toward some solutions. I just dont see it.














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