Re: Online poker RNG...


Gerry wrote:
I'm hoping someone(s) on here will be kind enough to help ease my mind
(or, for that matter, to verify my reasons for concern!) And I should
say that, while I'm a good poker player, I'm only a marginal student of
mathematics and computing, so keep that in mind, please, as you answer
this question, but:

Is it possible that, as I'm playing online, any of the other players
are cheating by way of predicting the order of the cards in the
"shuffled" deck?

Unless the programmers are complete idiots, no.

A few (some math, some poker) truths to keep in mind as you answer:

1. Many sites use an RNG algorithm based on 2^32. Isn't that pretty
easily susceptible to brute-force attacks from someone who has a
program relying on distributed computing?

An "algorithm based on 2^32?" So they're using one of infinitely many
algorithms based on the number 4,294,967,296? What if I told you I'm
picking a number using an algorithm based on the number 5? Would you
have _any_ idea at all what my number is? Now imagine it's based on 4
billion.... Even if someone wrote a program only searching through
algorithms conceivably based on 2^32, it would take years for it to
even find one that accurately matched the cards dealt during several
games of poker. And there's still no guarantee that'd be the right one.

2. In the most popular type of online poker (Texas Hold 'Em), there are
four rounds of betting, and the most important three rounds come AFTER
(a) each player gets two (face-down) cards and (b) three face-up cards
are dealt on the table -- SO, if the cheateer is, say, the third player
to be dealt cards at a table of ten players, then he will know the 3rd
and 13th cards (i.e. the two cards he's been dealt) as well as the
21st, 22nd and 23rd cards (the three dealt face-up immediately
following the two distributed to each player).

See above. I was assuming they were searching for an algorithm where
every card matched what was dealt (which is of course only rarely
revealed). If you're searching for algorithms with unknown cards, not
only would it still take quite a while, but there's absolutely no good
reason to assume any "found algorithm" comes anywhere near accurately
predicting what will come.

So, I guess my question is: how easily would someone be able -- either
by brute-force run-through of all possible combinations of "deck
arrangements" with those 5 cards in those specific spots, or by some
sort of reverse-engineering, or whatever -- to conclude the sequence of
cards in the deck (which, of course, would give him knowledge of
everyone's cards, as well as the two cards left to be dealt)?

Not easily at all. Realistically impossible given the speed of modern
day computers and infinite possible algorithms used by the programmers.

And, for that matter, a related question: there's a piece of software
currently on the market (Check out pokerrng.com.) which claims that, if
a player enters into the software the details of a few thousands
recently dealt hands, the software will "synch" with the poker system's
RNG well enough to predict three of the five cards (not suits, but
values, which is enough to be dangerous!) left to be dealt! Is this
even plausible? Do I need to be afraid of this type of thing?

Might work for extremely unprofessional poker sites where you have high
school students and extremely amateur programmers making poker games.
For any site where you can actually win money, or the programmers are
reputable (Yahoo, etc.), no, it's essentially implausible.

Anything online has inherent pitfalls, and cheating is -- both online
and offline -- a fact of life, but there's a certain level of security
I'd like, and I wonder if I'm jumping at shadows or rightly
concerned...

Any thoughts would be appreciated!

Thanks,

Gerry

Stay out of those shadows, Gerry. Let probability be probability...
sometimes you just can't win.

.

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