Re: How do you measure the accuracy of weather prediction?
- From: "mensanator@xxxxxxxxxxx" <mensanator@xxxxxxx>
- Date: 20 Mar 2006 18:18:28 -0800
mpcohen wrote:
Suppose the weatherman says that there is a 30% chance of rain. How do
you measure the accuracy of the prediction?
The prediction is ALWAYS completely accurate.
30% chance of rain means under similar conditions in the past,
it has rained 30% of the time and not rained 70% of the time.
If it rains, the weatherman was right.
If it doesn't rain, the weatherman was right.
If I flip a coin and announce there is a 50% chance of heads
and it comes up heads, I'll say "See, told ya so." And if it comes
up tails, I'll say "See, told ya so."
For simplicity sake,
suppose that the weather does not vary by season or from year to year.
If, for example, the overall chance of rain is 10% and on 30% of the
days that the weatherman says that it will rain with a chance of 30%
it actually does rain, that would seem to be fairly good. On the other
hand, if overall it rains 30% of the time and the weatherman says every
day that there is a 30% chance of rain, that would not be very good
predicting. How can we make these ratings quantitative?
.
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- How do you measure the accuracy of weather prediction?
- From: mpcohen
- How do you measure the accuracy of weather prediction?
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