Re: A more intuitive and simple way of thinking about the Monty Hall problem
- From: Jussi Piitulainen <jpiitula@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 11 Jun 2006 12:05:50 +0300
C6L1V@xxxxxxx writes:
Jussi Piitulainen wrote:
C6L1V@xxxxxxx writes:
Imagine doing the experiment 3,000,000 times. Say in every
Then it doesn't really matter which strategy I follow. One million
cars would already be too much for me, as a practical matter, and
another million - would I even notice the difference?
You are missing the point. Of the 3 million experiments, you win by
switching in 2 million of them. Therefore, the probability is 2/3 of
winning if you switch. Of course, you can get this directly from
standard probability calculations, but SOME people understand these
matters better if they think about the problem in terms of doing a
large number of experiments and looking at relative frequencies of
outcomes.
No, I did not miss your point. It is, indeed, a helpful way to think
about the probability, if you can imagine having millions of cars
without thinking of all the problems they would bring. Not all is
maths.
Your argument should be convincing, but I think there is a participant
in this thread who insists that switchers win at probability 1/2. Can
you find a way to convince him? I don't think that's a mathematical
problem, either.
.
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