Re: Is it possible for a probability to be unknown?

Math1723 wrote:
Non-repeatable scenarios, or repeatable ones whose parameters we are
not privy to, make it difficult to construct a mathematical model so as
to estimate such probabilities.

How about a scenario like this:

Ask two people to each think of a number. What is the probability that
they are thinking of the same number?

(Note that I intentionally did not give a range to choose from.)

That is at least a repeatable experiment. It does not matter whether
or not you gave them a range. You can continually run the experiment,
by selecting two new people for each trial, and calculate the hit
percentage.

Even without a range, most people will think of an integer, and the
vast majority will choose a single digit one at that. One might guess
that the hit rate would thus be around 10%, perhaps less for the few
who go outside that range. But certain numbers are more likely to be
favored over others: 3, 5 and 7 are (I would guess) more likely to be
picked than, say, 1, 2 or 9.

I would guess a hit rate closer to 20-25%, but that is pure speculation
on my part.

Jonathan Hoyle

.

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