Re: a simple(?) probability question...
- From: "Dirk Van de moortel" <dirkvandemoortel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 21 Jan 2007 16:00:58 GMT
"Joe" <jconcordia@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:1169395002.651944.230970@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ertug wrote:hi,
do you have an idea about this question?
* a river dam has a projected life of 50 years. What is the probability that a hundred-year flood will occur once during the life of the dam?
it is apparently simple and i guess the answer is 50/100 = 0.5; but i am not quite sure and thought there is a catch.
So, do you agree with my answer?
I think you have the right answer. The previous respondent disclosed an
elegant statistical procedure, however I believe the Poisson model may
not be the best model for the question at hand. The Poisson
distribution is most commonly applied to processes that are considered
"continuous".
The number of occurences in a given time interval is hardly
continuous ;-)
Drk Vdm
.
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