Re: a simple(?) probability question...

thanks for comments but;

there is no p, lambda or k in this question because for using Poisson approximation there would be many trials (thousands maybe) and a small probability to happen a small number of events.

in this question, there are some regions which is occupied by dam's life time and periodic flood. So, if flood happens 50-year or less, sure there will be at least one flood.

Let's consider that flood happens 51-year time - then unless it is not certain that a flood will happen, the probability would be a great percentage. Or inversely if flood happens 100,000-year time, then the probability would be very small.
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