Re: a simple(?) probability question...


"Andrew Holme" <andrew@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:ep07gr$2di$1$8300dec7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Dirk Van de moortel" <dirkvandemoortel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:M0Msh.302425$QF.5961776@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
So you have lambda = 1/2.

The Poisson equation gives the probability that there are
exactly k occurrences in a given time interval, in which the
average number of occurrences is given (as lambda).
So put k = 1 in the equation, and you get the "probability
that a hundred-year flood will occur once during the life of
the dam", which is exactly what you asked.

Exercise:
Assuming that you understand and accept the above,
what is the probability that a hundred-year flood will
occur *at least* once during the life of the dam?

Dirk Vdm

0.3934693 ?

Yes.
I hope this numerical result helps the OP find the answer
independently.

Dirk Vdm


.

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