Re: Probability of exceeding a specific value

On Sep 18, 2:22 pm, grosu <gr...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I guess so.
But a random walk with varying amount of change to the price (not constant steps with only the direction being chosen randomly).

You need more information to do any calculations. Is the price as
likely to go up as it is to go down? How exactly does the change vary
over time?

Normally distributed steps can be approximated (and, in the limit as
the time resolution gets infinitely fine, exactly replicated) by fixed
steps. For example, a random walk based on a normally distributed step
size with mean zero is, in the limit, identical to a random walk with
a suitably chosen fixed step size and equal up/down probabilities.

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