Re: Can Events of Zero Probability Happen?

Robert wrote:

David C. Ullrich <ullrich@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:

On Sun, 13 Jan 2008 21:37:23 -0800 (PST), Shubee
<e.Shubee@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Jan 12, 10:05 am, David C. Ullrich
<ullr...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

_If_ you're interested in resolving the
difference between
you and the physicist you'd ask what I suggested
you
ask and see what he says. Because it's possible
that
he'd have no problem with "choose a real between
0 and
1 at random", and in that case you could explain
why
he's simply _wrong_ about the impossibility of
events
of probability zero happening.

Sure, on the face of it, it seems possible to
reason with a physicist
that believes that conceptualizing events that
occur with zero
probability is unfathomable. The problem is, he
explicitly said that
even an event of incredibly small probability
can't happen.

First, if he said that why didn't you say so?
There's a big difference
between that and saying that events of zero
probability can't happen.

Second, again you should simply ask him a question.
First ask him for
an epsilon > 0 such that an event of probability <
epsilon can't
happen. Second, calculate an N such that 2^(-N) <
epsilon.
Third, ask him to flip a coin N times and tell you
what sequences
of heads and tails resulted. Then point out that
the probability
of that sequence of heads and tails is < epsilon.

Of course, if he's clever he'll take epsilon so small
that he won't be
able to flip a coin N times.

Third, no he _didn't_ say that! He said
"Probabilities this low
are generally taken to mean the event could not
have happened."
That's _true_.

Yes it is. Suppose I tell you that I was watching a
glass
of water the other day, and with no outside energy
applied
it just happened that half of it froze solid while
the other
half boiled away. Would you believe me?


You'd need a heck of a lot of coin flips to get a
probability that small.

LOL !!!

i would say aleph_3 coin flips and a mistake in the current laws of physics are needed.


--
Robert Israel
israel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Department of Mathematics
http://www.math.ubc.ca/~israel
University of British Columbia Vancouver,
BC, Canada

regards
tommy1729
.

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