Re: Is the term 'canceling each other's vote' a fallacy or fact?
- From: magidin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Arturo Magidin)
- Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2008 18:54:00 +0000 (UTC)
In article <beb3b63f-59bc-4353-bac2-986ca980aba5@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Danno <dh.evolutionnext@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Just thought I'd throw this question out. If my girlfriend and I are
voting in the same party primary, but voting for different
candidates, are we indeed 'canceling each other's vote'? I say 'nay'
but what does the math say?
It depends on a lot of factors. If there are only two candidates and
it is a "winner take all", then yes, the two of you voting once each
for the two candidates has the same effect as neither of you voting.
If there are more than two candidates, or if it is not a "winner take
all" election, then things might be different, though the total effect
of the two votes may very well be negligible.
For example, the US Democratic party primaries often award delegates
proportionally among those candidates who received at least 15% of the
vote. Say there are 2 candidates and 100 votes including you and
your girlfriend, and 100 delegates to award. If candidate A has x
votes and candidate B has y votes, then A gets x delegates and B gets
y delegates. If, however, neither you nor your girlfriend vote, than A
has x-1 votes out of 98, and B has y-1 votes of 98. This changes the
percentages slightly; e.g., if x=75 and y=25, then A now has 74 of 98,
which is 75.51 % of the vote; if you round up, then A will get 76
delegates instead of the original 75, while candidate B will get 24
delegates instead of the original 25. Of course, if intsead of 100
voters there are 100,000 voters, then the effect of the two votes
becomes negligible; with A getting 75,000 of the votes including
yours, the candidates percetage would change to 75.0005 %, which would
not change the percentage at all.
On the other hand, if you are voting for a candidate who is just
barely at 15%, then the single vote you do not cast (even coupled
with a single vote not cast for the other candidate) might be enough
to drop him just below that threshold, making him ineligible.
In a race with more than 3 candidates, of course, the votes do change
things a little more, though again, the more voters there are present
the more neglible the effect is.
In summary: it makes absolutely no difference (they "cancel each other
out") only if it is a straight, 2-candidate, winner-take-all
contest. In other kinds of contest, the two votes do not quite simply
cancel each other out (that is, the outcome of the election may be
different with the two opposing votes cast than without them cast),
but the difference will usually be negligible.
--
======================================================================
"It's not denial. I'm just very selective about
what I accept as reality."
--- Calvin ("Calvin and Hobbes" by Bill Watterson)
======================================================================
Arturo Magidin
magidin-at-member-ams-org
.
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