Re: A probabilistic analysis of the resurrection of Jesus

On Mar 22, 8:18 pm, rossum <rossu...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Fri, 21 Mar 2008 20:22:33 -0700 (PDT), "." <emans...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Hello,

Please check out this link - [url]http://7384.freehostia.com/The
%20Resurrection%20of%20Jesus.html[/url] - and let me know what you
think.  It is basically a bayesian analysis of the resurrection of
Jesus.  Do you think that the reasoning is sound?  If not, where do
you think it goes wrong?

Thanks

We know that Jesus was taken down from the cross early, because of the
Passover festival.  There is a passage in Josephus where three men are
taken down from crosses early and one of them survives.  I cannot find
this probability in that webpage's calculations anywhere.

It also fails to assess the probability of a misdiagnosis of death -
was Jesus in a death-like coma?  People do spontaneously wake from
comas after a few days and the probabilities of that are not assessed
on the webpage.

There is a lot more work to do on this I think.

rossum

The theories you mention would fall under E. If you come to the
conclusion that Jesus did not die on the cross, then that would be
part of your E. If E says that Jesus did not die on the cross, then
P(R | E & K) would be very small.
.

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