Re: Coin tossing guessing strategy...
- From: Chula Pittayapinun <pastelsalad@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:57:54 -0700 (PDT)
On Apr 21, 5:27 am, Ray Vickson <RGVick...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
ANY *particular* string, such as HTTHHHTHTHTT has the same probability
of occurrence as any other string of the same length, such as
HHHHHHHHHHHH or TTTTTTTTTTTT (strings of length 12 in this case). It
is true that strings of length 12 that have 5 heads and 7 tails are
much more probable than all H or all T, but that is not what we are
talking about here. You need a precise string in exactly one order,
because according to your description of the game, you lose as soon as
the element in the nth position (H or T) fails to match the actual
result of the nth toss, if you have not already lost before the nth
toss. Just guessing the right number of H's and T's is not good
enough.
R.G. Vickson
That is what I also thought. But could you please elaborate on 'that
is not what we are talking about here'? I need a precise formal
argument, if possible, to explain to my friends. (One of them has
invoked the argument of random walk- that HHH...H has lower prob of
occurance than HTTHHHTHTT.)
.
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