Re: Probability of making a choice by a person, on the basis of earlier made choices?
- From: Tim Little <tim@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 27 May 2008 20:11:34 -0500
On 2008-05-27, Marcin <marcinkrawczyk.mail@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Lets say, at the beginning, the probability, that the man will lie
and the probability the man will tell the truth are the same
(0.5). If the man answers the first question and lies, the
probability that he will also lie when asking a second question is
(I guess) already greater than 0.5.
From this information, there is no way to know. Without lots moreinformation, there is no way to even meaningfully estimate it.
But, if the man will answer first five questions frankly, the
probability, that in the reply to sixth question he will also tell
the truth is already much higher than 0.5.
Again, no way to know.
"(1) What is your name? (2) What is your quest? (3) What is your
favourite colour? (4) What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen
swallow? (5) What walks on four legs in the morning, two at midday,
and three in the evening? (6) Did you murder your wife?"
- Tim
.
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