Re: Canadian doctors coming to the US
From: Herman Rubin (hrubin_at_odds.stat.purdue.edu)
Date: 09/02/04
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Date: 2 Sep 2004 09:40:34 -0500
In article <mqEYc.4785$JT3.18@newsread3.news.atl.earthlink.net>,
George Conklin <nilknoc@earthlink.net> wrote:
>"Orac" <orac@mac.com> wrote in message
>news:orac-EF355F.16333529082004@news4-ge1.srv.hcvlny.cv.net...
>> In article <cgt8fn$22fi@odds.stat.purdue.edu>,
>> hrubin@odds.stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) wrote:
>> > In article <orac-A727DC.21270928082004@news4-ge1.srv.hcvlny.cv.net>,
>> > Orac <orac@mac.com> wrote:
>> > >In article <cgra53$4a0m@odds.stat.purdue.edu>,
>> > > hrubin@odds.stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) wrote:
>> > >> In article <41309b16$0$18253$79c14f64@nan-newsreader-05.noos.net>,
>> > >> Lictor <ghostmlNOSPAM-REMOVE@online.fr> wrote:
....................
> Herman denies that the usual test of statistical significance is a vaid
>test of how effective medicine is. Thus anything the government posts would
>automatically be invalid in his mind. I have never really understood why he
>insists that only Bayesian analysis be used, since he has never shown that
>the results would be changed if you change the test. Anyway......
A test of statistical significance tests whether the
observations would be "sufficiently unlikely" if the
null hypothesis is EXACTLY true, and NOTHING else.
It does not take into account how effective the
procedure is under the alternatives, nor the magnitude
of the effect under the null, and hence does not balance
the various components of risk. If 50% of the people
exposed to a disease without treatment died, and 51%
of 1,000,000 people given a treatment survived, this
would be HIGHLY significant. If there was a new
treatment given to 4, and they all survived, this
would not meet the customary significance level.
Which treatment would YOU choose?
-- This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University. Herman Rubin, Department of Statistics, Purdue University hrubin@stat.purdue.edu Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558
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