Re: H5N1 more deadly than the 1918 Avian virus: "consequences for humankind could be catastrophic"
- From: Don Kirkman <donsno2@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 16 Feb 2009 13:03:01 -0800
It seems to me I heard somewhere that Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD wrote in
article
<eb55dca3-13ff-4ea2-a476-ec8fe32e3ac4@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>:
In a new study, Carole Baskin, formerly assistant research professor
at Arizona's Biodesign Institute, currently with Science Foundation
Arizona, and an interdisciplinary team of collaborators, compared the
recent avian strain known in the scientific community as H5N1, with
genetic ressortants of the 1918 virus?source of the most severe
influenza pandemic in recorded history. The results, which appear in
the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of
Science, are sobering. H5N1 was found to replicate profusely within
the first 24 hours, causing severe damage to respiratory tissues while
sending the host's innate immune response into a lethal overdrive,
reminiscent of the trajectory of the original 1918 virus.
The threat of an avian flu pandemic hasn't gone away and emergency
preparedness efforts may be inadequate to deal with the scope of such
a pandemic, were one to occur. "In order to come up with vaccines and
therapies, you have to understand the disease," Baskin stresses.
"That's why I think this type of pathogenesis study is so important."
Although H5N1 is not readily communicable between humans, it has
nevertheless killed over 400 people to date as a result of human-avian
interactions, primarily in Vietnam, Thailand, China, Egypt and
Indonesia, according to the World Health Organization. The mortality
rate for those stricken with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
H5N1 is 63 percent. Should a series of modifications allow the virus
to pass from person to person, the consequences for humankind could be
catastrophic.
[Research details omitted]
In terms of how many modifications would be required for H5N1 to
become a highly contagious human virus, Baskin expresses concern:
"There have been some estimations and it's not a lot," she notes.
"That's the short and simple answer."
Concern is appropriate. This looks like a well done study, and it
underscores the virulence of the strain. It raises the
**possibility** of an eventual mutation that would allow human to
human transfer, but Baskin does not go beyond referring to that
possibility.
Source:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090210092842.htm
"Human influenza outbreak has the potential of triggering a pandemic
when a new influenza virus appears against which the human population
has no immunity. With the increase in global transport and
communications, as well as urbanization and overcrowded conditions,
epidemics due to the new influenza virus are likely to quickly take
hold around the world leading to enormous numbers of deaths and
illness. Outbreaks of influenza in animals, especially when happening
simultaneously with annual outbreaks in humans, increase the chances
of a pandemic through the merging of animal and human influenza
viruses. During the last few years, the world has faced several
threats with pandemic potential, making the occurrence of the next
pandemic just a matter of time."
Source:
http://www.ias.ac.in/jbiosci/nov2008/475.pdf
"The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average
life span in the US was depressed by 10 years.
The author doesn't cite a source, and the meaning is ambiguous. The
author may be confusing average age at death with average life span.
The 1918 flu caused more deaths among younger persons than most flu
epidemics, probably because so many young men were in military
facilities during the epidemic. Reportedly over 100,000 of the US
casualties were military, roughly equally divided between combat and
non-combat deaths, many of the latter from the flu.
"The average life expectancy at birth increased by 10 years from 1900
to 1930, and increased by another 15 years from 1930 to 1990."
http://www.elderweb.com/home/book/export/html/2843
For all races, both sexes, using statistics from all states with
mandatory death registration laws, life expectancy was:
1900 47.3 years
1905 48.7
1910 50.0
1915 54.5
1920 54.1
1925 59.0
1930 59.7
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lifexpec.htm
The paper you reference is from 1997, apparently a student report
though the single author is not further identified. None of the links
in the bibliography is still valid. It clearly is not a research
document done by University personnel. All the evidence appears to be
anecdotal, and some sources may be tendentious.
The influenza virus hadIt seems incredible that four women suffering from the flu would
a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the
previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death
rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times
higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). People were
struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode
shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the
night. Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg).
Others told stories of people on their way to work suddenly developing
the flu and dying within hours (Henig). One physician writes that
patients with seemingly ordinary influenza would rapidly "develop the
most viscous type of pneumonia that has ever been seen" and later when
cyanosis appeared in the patients, "it is simply a struggle for air
until they suffocate," (Grist, 1979). Another physician recalls that
the influenza patients "died struggling to clear their airways of a
blood-tinged froth that sometimes gushed from their nose and
mouth," (Starr, 1976)."
gather to play cards, especially in light of all the warnings and
restrictions that are cited.
Source:
http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/
What we are teaching to prepare folks for the eventuality of a
catastrophic Pan-Flu:
How to not be fearful:
How much better to stop making people fearful with your constant
warnings of some that may never happen.
--
Don Kirkman
donsno2@xxxxxxxxxxx
.
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