Re: H5N1 more deadly than the 1918 Avian virus: "consequences for humankind could be catastrophic"
- From: Don Kirkman <donsno2@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 16 Feb 2009 13:42:37 -0800
It seems to me I heard somewhere that Don Kirkman wrote in article
<t29jp49vpbckq5n5n3ua1vi6k4calp50b4@xxxxxxx>:
Making a clarification
It seems to me I heard somewhere that Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD wrote in
article
<eb55dca3-13ff-4ea2-a476-ec8fe32e3ac4@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>:
"Human influenza outbreak has the potential of triggering a pandemic
when a new influenza virus appears against which the human population
has no immunity. With the increase in global transport and
communications, as well as urbanization and overcrowded conditions,
epidemics due to the new influenza virus are likely to quickly take
hold around the world leading to enormous numbers of deaths and
illness. Outbreaks of influenza in animals, especially when happening
simultaneously with annual outbreaks in humans, increase the chances
of a pandemic through the merging of animal and human influenza
viruses. During the last few years, the world has faced several
threats with pandemic potential, making the occurrence of the next
pandemic just a matter of time."
Source:
http://www.ias.ac.in/jbiosci/nov2008/475.pdf
"The effect of the influenza epidemic was so severe that the average
life span in the US was depressed by 10 years.
The author doesn't cite a source, and the meaning is ambiguous. The
author may be confusing average age at death with average life span or expected life span.
The 1918 flu caused more deaths among younger persons than most flu
epidemics, probably because so many young men were in military
facilities during the epidemic. Reportedly over 100,000 of the US
casualties were military, roughly equally divided between combat and
non-combat deaths, many of the latter from the flu.
Note that the author of the paper did not cite evidence for a drastic
depression of the average US life span due to the flu epidemic.
The last sentence should read "reportedly there were over 100,000 US
military casualties during World War I, roughly equally divided . . .
.."
"The average life expectancy at birth increased by 10 years from 1900--
to 1930, and increased by another 15 years from 1930 to 1990."
http://www.elderweb.com/home/book/export/html/2843
For all races, both sexes, using statistics from all states with
mandatory death registration laws, life expectancy was:
1900 47.3 years
1905 48.7
1910 50.0
1915 54.5
1920 54.1
1925 59.0
1930 59.7
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lifexpec.htm
The paper you reference is from 1997, apparently a student report
though the single author is not further identified. None of the links
in the bibliography is still valid. It clearly is not a research
document done by University personnel. All the evidence appears to be
anecdotal, and some sources may be tendentious.
The influenza virus hadIt seems incredible that four women suffering from the flu would
a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the
previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death
rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times
higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). People were
struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode
shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the
night. Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg).
Others told stories of people on their way to work suddenly developing
the flu and dying within hours (Henig). One physician writes that
patients with seemingly ordinary influenza would rapidly "develop the
most viscous type of pneumonia that has ever been seen" and later when
cyanosis appeared in the patients, "it is simply a struggle for air
until they suffocate," (Grist, 1979). Another physician recalls that
the influenza patients "died struggling to clear their airways of a
blood-tinged froth that sometimes gushed from their nose and
mouth," (Starr, 1976)."
gather to play cards, especially in light of all the warnings and
restrictions that are cited.
Source:
http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/
What we are teaching to prepare folks for the eventuality of a
catastrophic Pan-Flu:
How to not be fearful:
How much better to stop making people fearful with your constant
warnings of some that may never happen.
Don Kirkman
donsno2@xxxxxxxxxxx
.
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