How to evaluate health risks (without going insane) - Every day, new health studies fill the media..

http://www.stats.org/in_depth/evaluate_healthrisks/How_eval_health_risks.htm

Every day, new health studies fill the media, many of them often
contradicting each other and earlier research.

For years, women were told that hormone replacement therapy could reduce
their risk of heart disease, stroke and Alzheimer?s; then new research
found that it may actually increase the risk for these disorders; then
closer analysis of the new data showed that increase only applied to older
women ? and that HRT may protect against heart disease for younger women.

Fish is a wonderful source of protein and Omega-3 fatty acids, which may
reduce the risk of heart disease, and mitigate the effects of alzheimers.
But what about studies claiming that many fish are contaminated with high
levels of mercury? Chocolate: artery-clogging bad guy or artery-clearing
hero?

The way health stories are usually covered by the media, it?s often
impossible to tell. The latest news is often rushed into print,
over-simplified, or misunderstood

But the following guidelines can help you make sense of the latest
risk-touting study, and help you to decide when you should start ? or stop
? taking a drug, pursuing treatment or changing your diet.


contents


1. Cause or effect?
Only ?experimental? or ?controlled? studies can prove whether a particular
drug or activity is the cause or the
cure of a particular illness.

2. Has the research been replicated?
Even the best-designed study in the world can occasionally produce
impressive looking results by chance

3. What was the dosage?
The ancients knew that what distinguishes medicine from poison is often in
the measure.

4. Is that me?
Who participated in the study?

5. Is the risk relative or absolute?
Be skeptical of shocking numbers.

6. Anecdote is not evidence
Clinical observations, like other anecdotes about health, are subject to
all manner of biases.

7. Follow the money
The source of a researcher?s funding can affect the outcome of the
research.

8. Where was it published?
Prestige and peer-review count.

9. Is there publication bias?
Journals are three times more likely to publish studies of treatments
showing positive results than those
which show no effect.

10. Are the pleasure police on patrol?
If it feels or tastes good, it?s probably bad for you ? or is it?

11. Is the risk worth the benefit?
The opportunity costs may not be worth the risk.

12. Science v journalism
Journalists and scientists tend to have very different perspectives on
research.

.

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