CT scans versus smoking risks: 500 packs of cigarettes?
- From: Kelley Eidem <awthrawthr@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 09:33:31 -0800 (PST)
I'm trying to get a handle on the recent NEMJ report on the risks of
CT scans by comparing them to smoking risks.
In the US, about 45 million people smoke. Smoking presently generates
about 1/3 of all the cancer deaths (180,000 a year), according to
ASCH.
According to the AP report on the NEMJ article, there were 62 million
CT scans done last year.
That's estimated to cause 2% of all the cancers in future decades,
with the 'gestation' taking 10 to 20 years. Many of the CT scans were
done on the on the same people repeatedly.
The 2% translates into about 11,000 cancer deaths per year in the
future, according the NEJM study estimate.
I don't know if there is a straight line risk to increased exposure,
although I rather doubt it. However, the NEMJ might be using a
straight line incidence projection.
The average US smoker smokes less than a pack of cigarettes a day (men
16, women 12), or about 250 packs a year. If the average person smokes
for 40 years, that's 10,000 packs in a lifetime.
If my calculations are correct, with 45 million smokers result in
180,000 cancer deaths and an additional 11,000 are caused by 62
million CT scans, then a SINGLE CT scan would be equivalent in terms
of cancer deaths to smoking approximately 500 packs of cigarettes.
Smoke 'em if you got 'em.
.
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