OT: Emerging danger zones
From: Sinaj101 (sinaj101_at_aol.comnospam)
Date: 06/17/04
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Date: 17 Jun 2004 13:42:04 GMT
Emerging danger zones
12 travel destinations that are on corporate watch lists
By Andrea Coombes, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:20 PM ET June 10, 2004
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - As the home of Mt. Everest, Nepal is a popular
destination for adventure travelers embarking on exotic treks over remote,
snow-capped mountains.
Few travelers realize the birthplace of Buddha also is playing host to a Maoist
rebellion, making it one of the more dangerous tourist spots on the globe.
And, while heightened security measures are being taken to keep Athens safe
from terrorists during the summer Olympics, Greece is still less-than-ideal for
a vacation because of the potential for violent skirmishes between police and
domestic protest groups.
Iraq heads the list of most dangerous countries for Western travelers, yet
there are plenty of places like Brazil or Guatemala that are considered safe
but where brewing political tensions, high-profile events, or widespread crime
mean a trip there requires greater planning and precaution.
CBS MarketWatch interviewed experts at travel-security firms and obtained an
exclusive survey of 187 corporate travel managers to identify the most
dangerous emerging hot spots.
Iraq tops the list of five most perilous countries, followed by Iran,
Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, according to the survey of Association
of Corporate Travel Executives members.
But Colombia, Turkey, North Korea, Spain and Egypt were cited as the top
emerging hazard zones, according to the survey.
Colombia's narco-terrorism and Turkey's political instability, fed by a Kurdish
separatist movement, were cited as reasons to be wary.
Turkey's rebel activity is concentrated in the remote southeast, but "Istanbul
and Ankara aren't completely off the radar," said Maria Cohrs, regional manager
for Europe with iJet Travel Risk Management, a provider of travel security news
to corporations and individuals (iJet did not participate in the survey).
The rebels "are not going to target foreigners necessarily, but (travelers)
could run into something," she said.
As for Spain, some say any country that supported the U.S. war in Iraq
continues to be a potential terrorist target.
"The countries that are on our watch list are those that are compatriots with
the U.S. on terrorism," said iJet Chief Executive Bruce McIndoe, "especially
countries that may not have a strong counter-terrorism infrastructure, for
example, Poland. We're watching those countries carefully for any kind of
indicators that trouble may brew."
Keep risks in perspective
Security consultants say terrorism concerns shouldn't stop travelers from
venturing forth.
"The chance of you dying in Italy as a result of terrorism is probably on the
same order of you getting on a commercial airliner to go to Italy and dying in
a fiery crash," McIndoe said. "From a risk perspective, (being in) Italy should
be no more disconcerting than getting on United Airlines to go to Rome."
Others agreed. "You can pretty much go everywhere with proper security
safeguards," said Charlie LeBlanc, vice president of operations at Air Security
International, a travel-security firm. (See tips on staying safe below.)
Domestic danger?
Domestic travelers might consider their plans carefully this year, as three
major U.S. events "are red flags," McIndoe said.
They are the Republican National Convention in New York from Aug. 30 through
Sept. 2, the Democratic National Convention in Boston from July 26 through 29,
and the November election.
"Right now in New York City, there are all kinds of indicators that have been
triggered that something could happen around the convention there," McIndoe
said.
"They've had police uniforms stolen, fire-department uniforms stolen, police
radio-gear stolen," he said. "These are all indicators that when added up say
'hey, it's more likely that this is going to happen than not.'"
Still, any threat is "mitigated by the fact that the U.S. also realizes that
and is spending truckloads of money to make sure that nothing happens," McIndoe
said.
Hazard zones
The following are countries where travelers should consider extra precautions,
according to travel-risk consultants.
Nepal. Political groups eager for a parliamentary democracy are vying with a
Maoist insurgency, making tourist treks there now a risky proposition.
"There's a lot of activity in Nepal's eastern half, which is a favorite
trekking area for tourists," said Ira Russ, iJet's regional manager for the
Middle East and North Africa.
"You have strikes in Kathmandu that shut down the capital for three or four
days on end. Random attacks on tourist locations. Shoot-outs with rebels," Russ
said.
"The tourists who go to Nepal to see the beautiful mountains and assume there's
no problem: You might be better off waiting a couple of years before you go
trekking."
Ecuador. Like some of its neighbors, the drug trade is making Ecuador
potentially dangerous ground. "The U.S. is really pushing cocoa eradication
projects. The cocoa growers are getting very upset. You're seeing
demonstrations and violence is getting worse," LeBlanc said. "It's very similar
to what's been going on in Venezuela and Columbia."
Bolivia. Anti-drug efforts and a tenuous political situation make this country
a risky tourist destination. "You're seeing larger and larger demonstrations
that have the ability to turn violent very quickly," LeBlanc said.
"It's been very oppressed from a worker standpoint and they're very poor. When
you mix a poor culture with one that feels things aren't getting better, things
can turn violent very quickly. That's what you see in La Paz," he said.
Armenia. Opposition to the existing regime is creating upheaval, said Alex
Bobilev, iJet's regional manager for Russia. "They have demonstrations ...
almost every week," he said, adding that protesters lack critical mass right
now but if the government were to "use weapons to disburse the demonstrators,
the situation might change very, very fast."
Brazil, Guatemala and Nicaragua. In all three countries, travelers are
increasingly targets for crimes, said Sarah Slenker, senior security analyst at
iJet.
"Many countries have a high level of crime (but) it's not a direct threat to
travelers. In these countries, it's a direct threat," Slenker said. One trend
is the "express kidnapping," where criminals kidnap tourists for about 36 hours
and during that time force them to empty their bank accounts.
"Most people get released unharmed, but it's extremely prevalent particularly
in cities like Rio and Sao Paulo," Slenker said, as well as in Guatemala,
Nicaragua and some African countries. Avoid outdoor ATMs, dress modestly, and
limit jewelry, she said.
Temporary dangers
A domestic extremist group called the Revolutionary Struggle is likely to
attempt some low-level explosions during the summer Olympics in Athens, Cohrs
said.
Still, "this group is not really capable of staging a large-scale attack," she
said. As for an Al Qaeda attack, Cohrs said signs point against the
possibility.
"The Al Qaeda does not usually strike where strong counter-terrorism measures
are in place. They tend to strike at unlikely times and places," she said.
Tips on staying safe
The best way to stay safe: Know the place you're going. "Engaging in some
pre-trip intelligence finding is critical to make sure you don't put yourself
in the wrong place at the wrong time," LeBlanc said.
The U.S. State Department, Air Security International and iJet Travel Risk
Management Web sites offer warnings about specific dangers.
iJet sells country profiles including local customs, common diseases and
crimes, embassy contact information and more, plus ongoing travel alerts, for
$25 per trip, for all countries on your itinerary. If a local McDonalds, say,
experiences a bomb threat, you'll be told by cell phone or e-mail which streets
to avoid.
Also, experts say it's safer to travel with others, preferably locals. "If
possible, always be with someone who's local, who understands the culture and
can understand the situation," LeBlanc said. "Locals know when two rival gangs
are about to face off with each other. They're more tuned in to what's going on
than you or I would be."
Plus, dress like everyone else, don't display signs of wealth, avoid displaying
signs of your nationality, and don't walk the streets late at night.
Andrea Coombes is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.
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