Re: New here questions on lyme and other

On Feb 20, 10:07 pm, the 3rd Man <sir_de...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Feb 20, 10:24 pm, Needsomeinput <needrealhel...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

3rd I like your analysis but I think your perception of random and
inherent error (i.e. of a test) is not quite correct.

You mean that business about statistical relevance...application of
results...margin of error, all that?

Well, yeah...but see, from my example...my mindset, I've already got
my first result and am interested in the odds of the next two or three
being consistent. It's not really whether his test results apply to
the detection of the first sample...if that makes any sense...yes, for
the sake of argument, I could accept the accuracy rate he suggests, I
suppose, without any differing impact, whatever.

And I'm not sure...but I do not think that the odds for successive
tests will be 50-50 as Bart suggests.

Of course not, I'm with you on this. As a matter of fact I thought you
were actually diminishing the value of the argument because the flip
of a coin was random and that somehow then probability wouldn't apply
as well to predict the consecutive results based on the error of the
test. The odds of a flipping a coin could be changed be fixing the
coin so that probability would be almost anything you want (sure the
extreme being heads/head, tails/tails,100%), and is a perfect analogy
because the point is not about "randomness" really (even though of
course is related to) but is about the probability of the event to
happens consecutively or alternatively simultaneously (like I
mentioned before).

Furthermore, when you say later: "But, see, for probability
theory...this does not tend to indicate
'randomness'." that's what I was trying to imply.

.

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