Re: To 3rd man

On Feb 21, 9:29 pm, cowabungaba...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
I think the problem is that we are starting from different
assumptions.

You are assuming that the ELISA is NOT a random event.
I am assuming
that it is based on the fact that in practice the test turns out to be
often no better than a coin flip in terms of sensitivity.

No. Not a random event for the purposes of probability analysis
whether or not your 50-50 assessment holds or not.

Just wrong.

And we are analyzing the same phenomenon but using different measures
of it. Binomial probability theorem validates what you are saying.
Simple statistics validates what I am saying.

No.

In any event let's just call a truce. I know I understand what you're
saying and how you are arriving at your conclusions. You don't think I
do get it but I swear I do.

I see NO point in continuing, given your position. We keep returning
to your position. It is jsut repetition.

In any event, let's just all agree to disagree and move on to discuss
something else.

I can't take another day of math debates.

Well, I think the whole discussion was actually very revealing.

Something "Needsomeinput" said in reagrd to "winning the lottery" sort
of excited me...as that same thought has been bouncing around in my
head for some time...and I am not sure...but I may have diverted the
thread onto a collateral issue, a digression, at the xpense of more
pressing matters...particularly "Needsomeinput"s need for specific
input...and not general.

I apologize, if that was, indeed, the case.

The overall issues interest me, though...and I am beginning to wonder
if, to alarge degree, the perception issues involving Lyme and Lyme
diagnosis don't actually stem, somewhat from a lack of appareciation
of some fundamental mathematical concepts and principles?!

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: To 3rd man
    ... You are assuming that the ELISA is NOT a random event. ... Binomial probability theorem validates what you are saying. ...
    (sci.med.diseases.lyme)
  • To 3rd man
    ... You are assuming that the ELISA is NOT a random event. ... Binomial probability theorem validates what you are saying. ...
    (sci.med.diseases.lyme)