Re: Experts say low carb fad over
From: Cubit (no_at_not.not)
Date: 12/21/04
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Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 03:04:12 GMT
When people do their annual January diets, what is available to replace low
carb? I think there will be a resurgence of low carb for a brief period.
It is hard to imagine it being as big as last year's boom, but who knows?
Many seem to only use low carb for a temporary period, then they return to
high carbs and weight regain. When they make their new New Years
resolutions, I think they will just repeat what they did last year.
<markd@toad-net.com> wrote in message
news:41c6beba$0$63176$4d5ecec7@reader.city-net.com...
>
> Experts say low-carb craze may be over
>
> By MARGARET STAFFORD, Associated Press Writer
>
> KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - About a year ago, Dave Champlin and his two
> roommates lived in what their friends at the University of Missouri
> called the House of Fat. At a combined weight of 890 pounds, the three
> decided to try the Atkins diet. By sticking to the low-carb,
> high-protein diet, Champlin lost about 45 pounds and his roommates
> each lost between 50 and 60 pounds.
>
> Despite being pleased with the results, all three were off the diet by
> this past summer and have gained back some of the weight. Champlin,
> 23, and his friends exemplify why many diet and food industry experts
> are declaring the low-carb diet craze over.
>
> "It just got kind of tiresome," Champlin said. "Eating the same thing
> over and over. It was monotonous."
>
> A study by NPD Group, an independent marketing information company,
> found that the percentage of American adults on any low-carb diet in
> 2004 peaked at 9.1 percent in February and dropped to 4.9 percent by
> early November.
>
> Further, it said only one of four people surveyed was significantly
> cutting carbs and "virtually none" were reducing carbs as much as the
> diets recommended.
>
> That means many companies that rode the low-carb wave are either out
> of business or refocusing their strategies.
>
> One example: MGP Ingredients Inc. of Atchison, Kan., which profited
> from the low-carb trend, earlier this month announced it was cutting
> its fiscal 2005 per-share earnings forecast by more than half - from
> $1.08 to no more than 50 cents.
>
> The reason is reduced demand for its specialty proteins and starches
> used to reduce carbohydrates in foods. MGP said low-carb demand had
> peaked, and it did not expect it to return to anywhere near the level
> that sparked a 123 percent increase in sales in the third quarter of
> fiscal 2004.
>
> MGP always expected the low-carb demand to cool, but it happened more
> quickly than anticipated, spokesman Steve Pickman said.
>
> "We expected at least to continue at its strong level for the next 18
> to 36 months," Pickman said. "We by no means feel low-carb is dead,
> but it's declined to a much lower plateau than we or the industry
> expected."
>
> While MGP's future is not threatened, many smaller businesses based on
> low-carb products have closed their doors, and larger companies that
> introduced low-carb foods are changing strategies.
>
> American Italian Pasta, the nation's largest producer of dry pasta,
> reported a net loss of $12.2 million, or 67 cents per share, in the
> second quarter of this year. The company's reduced-carb pasta was a
> flop, with sales 50 percent lower than expected. Chief Executive Tim
> Webster said the company planned to begin marketing it as a
> low-calorie, high-fiber product.
>
> No one expects low-carb products to disappear. ACNielsen LabelTrends
> reported that sales of products labeled for low-carb lifestyles were
> still growing but had slowed. Sales, in terms of dollars, rose only
> 6.1 percent for the 13 weeks ended Sept. 25, compared to the previous
> quarter. That compared with a 105.5 percent increase in the 13 weeks
> that ended March 27.
>
> That decline is not surprising, even at Atkins Nutritionals Inc., a
> company founded 30 years ago by Dr. Robert C. Atkins to spread the
> low-carb gospel.
>
> Colette Heimowitz, vice president of education and research, said the
> market became saturated with low-carb products because companies
> joined the "diet wars" in 2004. She said many companies are expected
> to withdraw from the market because of the intense competition for
> dieters.
>
> Heimowitz said people have been calling the Atkins diet a fad for 30
> years. "It has already stood the test of time," she said. "There is no
> indication that it's going anywhere."
>
> She predicted people will continue to incorporate it into their
> lifestyle.
>
> That's true for Champlin, the Missouri student, who said he will
> continue to buy some low-carb products.
>
> "It did teach me to watch what I eat and drink," he said. "I'm not
> going to go back to how I ate before."
>
> Others say the decline in low-carb popularity was entirely
> predictable, much like past crazes such as low-fat or liquid diets.
>
> "It was overhyped from the beginning, a craze that was never a craze,"
> said Bob Goldin, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a food
> industry research firm. "It was a little bubble that had zero staying
> power. We've been there, done that, many, many times."
>
> Goldin said companies suffering because they got on the low-carb
> bandwagon have only themselves to blame.
>
> "Everyone's always looking for the silver bullet, a magic diet or a
> magic pill," he said. "The whole industry needs to look at nutrition
> from a holistic standpoint. A lot of things go into healthy living,
> and they shouldn't look for one thing to make their fame and fortune."
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