Re: Follow-Up to Flu Vaccine Predictions

johngohde@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

> As many threads on sci.med have previously stated, the long lead time
> required to produce an annual flu vaccine dooms it to failure.

Not really. The committee responsible for choosing the vaccine
fomulation have a lot of experience in monitoring emergence of
influenza strains and they almost always do a great job because the
strains usually persist for several years at a time (see below).

> There is no other logical possiblity until the long lead time is drastically
> cut back.

Here's what I've been able to piece together from MMWR's archives over
the last half hour:

1997-2000: Predominant circulating strain: A/Sydney/05/97-like (H3N2),
which was in the vaccine.

2000-2001: Predominant circulating strain: A/New Caledonia/20/99-like
(H1N1), which was in the vaccine.

2001-2002: Predominant circulating strain: A/Panama/2007/99-like
(H3N2), which was in the vaccine.

2002-2003: Predominant circulating strains: A/New Caledonia/20/99-like
(H1N1) and A/Panama/2007/99-like (H3N1 and H3N2), the H1N1 and H3N1
strains were formulated in the vaccine, but the H3N2 was not.

2003-2004: Predominant circulating strain: A/Fujian/411/2002-like
(H3N2), which was not in the vaccine. Post-hoc studies showed that
vaccinated people had less severe disease. The vaccine formulation was
A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus, B/HongKing/330/2001-like, and
A/Panama/2007/99 (H3N2)

2004-2005: Predominant circulating strain: A/Fujian/411/2002-like
(H3N2), which was in the vaccine.

2005-2006: So far, the predominant circulating strain is
A/California/07/2004-like (H3N2), which is in the vaccine. It's too
early to tell if this will be THE predominant strain, but so far the
vaccine's on target.

It appears that in the last 9 years, all but one vaccine was on target.
And even the one that missed reduced the overall severity of influenza
infections.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: America -- Land of Opportunity -- for H5N1
    ... >"bird flu" until we actually have examples to work on... ... made a vaccine for it that works on mice. ... manufacturing techniques to cut the lead time. ... Last year's flu vaccine problem was due to the fact that the USA is ...
    (rec.arts.sf.fandom)
  • Superbug vaccine
    ... US researchers have developed a vaccine that protected mice from four ... This microbe's ability to acquire the tools it needs to protect itself ... five different strains of Staphylococcus aureus. ... Four of these strains were MRSA, while the other was a strain ...
    (misc.health.alternative)
  • Malaysian Pig Farms Breed new Influenza
    ... The latest research quoted here states that new Influenza virus that ... We all know that South East Asia has among the least hygienic pig ... Why the Flu Vaccine Fizzled ... which strains found anywhere in the world are apt to circulate in this ...
    (soc.culture.malaysia)
  • Malaysian Pig Farms Breed new Influenza
    ... The latest research quoted here states that new Influenza virus that ... We all know that South East Asia has among the least hygienic pig ... Why the Flu Vaccine Fizzled ... which strains found anywhere in the world are apt to circulate in this ...
    (soc.culture.malaysia)
  • Study casts new doubts on HPV vaccine
    ... New data on the controversial HPV vaccine designed to prevent cervical ... reduced the incidence of cancer precursors by only 17% overall. ... But the data also hinted that blocking the targeted strains might have ...
    (sci.med.diseases.cancer)