Re: MNT development costs (was Re: Nanotech arms race worries: all smokeand no fire?)
From: Eivind Kjorstad (ekj_at_vestdata.no)
Date: 07/22/04
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Date: 22 Jul 2004 00:25:08 GMT
Chris Phoenix wrote:
>> Given all that, it seems likely that much more than ~$20 billion
>> will be spent before anyone manages to create the first
>> self-replicating system.
> If we had started in the mid-80's, I'd agree with you: $20 billion
> over 10 years, assuming excellent management.
Are you reading what you are responding to ? He isn't saying it'll cost
20 billion, he is saying it'll likely cost *much more* than 20 billion.
> But I think the cost is dropping rapidly.
It is obvious that the cost is dropping, what is a lot less obvious is
how much and how quickly, and from what starting point. We do know that
it's cheaper to do today than it would be with a project that started
10 years ago. However, we do not have a clue how many zeroes to put on
the estimates.
> I expect that if no one has done it by 2020, it'll be within the reach
> of a single university research group: three years and under $10
> million. That's about 25% per year cost drop, and predicts
> that starting today we could finish in maybe five years for maybe
> about $300 million. Which doesn't seem completely implausible.
It does to me. It must sound equally implausible to every single person
and entity on earth controlling a 300 million money-sack. If it didn't,
someone would have started this already. (You're freee to counter that
someone migth have, only it's secret, I guess we'll know about that in
5 years.)
Sincerely,
Eivind Kjrstad
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