MNT macroeconomics

"Perry E. Metzger" <perry@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:=20
The military will never be subject to regulation. They get to build
whatever toys they like, in the name of "national security". In the
end, only peaceful purposes will be subject to meaningful
regulation. What such regulation will result in is lots of people who
could be cured of diseases dying, lots of toxic waste pits that could ha=
ve
been cleaned remaining in the ground, lots of poverty that could have
been cured continuing, etc., in the name of an omniscient set of
regulators "studying the matter".

But the non-military actors you speak of can potentially build military w=
eaponry with this technology. Even medicines nanoengineered can be used =
as weapons. How will this be avoided without regulation? You are assumi=
ng militaries will (by some invisible hand?) be the only possessors of MN=
T factories. How can this be accomplished without regulation?
=20
=20
>Look at the price of oil as traded on a couple of of the futures
exchanges. There are more than a few hundred people who participate
directly in setting the prices of those contracts -- it is hundreds of
thousands of people who are directly trading, and they're responding
to the demand decisions expressed by literally billions of people.
=20
No it is a few dozen hedge-fund traders who dominate the market. The s=
ignals from actual commodities producers and derivative financial vehicle=
issuers are dwarved. I'll post the derivative trade flows data if you i=
nsist.
=20
=20
>Going wider afield, if your belief that markets can be manipulated so
easily by the powerful was true, why did the Hunts go bankrupt trying
to corner the silver market in the late 1970s?
=20
I said the free and efficient market invariably steers large capital ac=
cumulations into economy-wrecking compounding interest vehicles (like sto=
cks and bonds). I never said anything about derivatives. Futures lose v=
alue over time so you need some underlying (possibly inside) information =
to manifest over the timeframe of your contract. Much better is to corne=
r actual mine ownership like De Beers before the advent of synthetic diam=
onds. Silver is affected by things like fashion trends in India, and the=
re are few genuine silver mines. If you corner a future's market without=
correctly playing the underlying commodity's price change, all you are d=
oing is making the contract issuers wealthy. Breaking even loses your in=
vestment.


>This belief you are expressing that the world's markets are controlled
by a couple hundred people is completely without basis in reality. <SNIP=


The poorest 1/2 of the world earn 1.2-1.5 trillion $/yr: http://en.wik=
ipedia.org/wiki/Poverty#Measuring_poverty
The wealthiest 7 million earn twice that: http://www.us.capgemini.com/=
worldwealthreport/1_State_of_the_Worlds_Wealth.pdf
I know you're thinking: so what? Well, the same macroeconomic variable=
concentrating wealth over the last two hundred years since the Industria=
l Revolution; that same variable will operate at a very accelerated time-=
scale post-MNT. The first time around it was whoever had access to banki=
ng capital flows and property purchases; their family got wealthier over =
successive generations. The first macroeconomic variable was the fact th=
at compounding interest capital gains value faster than does genuine prod=
uctivity gains. With MNT, it would simply be MNT factory owners dumping =
goods upon the market and buying up the world's wealth at 100X the rate o=
f capital concentration as the IR facilitated. The free-market where eve=
ryone has a tiny nano-factory, will not spontaneously emerge.


>By the way, if your belief that markets are all totally manipulated by
a few hundred people is true, you should be able to make a fortune
trading oil or other futures betting on the basis that these "few
hundred" people will always get their way. Even a couple percent edge
in prediction would swiftly yield billions of dollars in profits
starting from a modest starting stake. So, if you're so smart, why
aren't you filthy rich?

I don't believe markets are too manipulated, it is impersonal macroecon=
omic market failures at play. Multi-billionaires earning billions don't =
understand why or how their compounding interest capital gains are soakin=
g up productivity gains, just as MNT owners in a neocapitalistic economy =
wouldn't understand how they had suddenly come to own all of the world's =
businesses and natural resources.
There was an easy to read paper illustrating how this happens I can't=
seem to google at the moment. Basically, world GDP grows at 5%/yr and w=
ealthy capital portfolios return 7-10%/yr. Absurd capital concentration =
takes over in centuries. Post-MNT, world GDP will grow 8-20%/yr and MNT =
owners will see their capital portfolios return +1000%/yr. MNT inventors=
take over in less than a decade the less redistributive the fiscal polic=
y of the MNT jurisdiction is.
It takes 5 or 6 figures to open a derivatives account in Canada. Banks=
here classify limited liability options contracts in the same way as the=
y classify unlimited liability (can lose more than your initial stake) de=
rivatives plays. At $8/hr unloading trucks or contruction site demolitio=
n, I won't be joining Soros anytime soon. Your net worth capital gains g=
rossly have to outperform your cost-of-living expenses if you wanna be a =
free-market leech.
=20
=20
>> MNT-enabled mercenaries are to be avoided.
It is naive to believe that merely because a law is passed that the
law will do what people intend for it to do. <SNIP>
=20
You use MNTed nanosensors to enforce who controls MNT infrastructures.


.

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