Re: 20 year anniversary of sci.nanotech


david20@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

And are nanotech assemblers still 20 years away ?

http://groups.google.com/group/sci.nanotech/msg/35f4b2ad425c55ac

IMO, decent nanotechnology not directly derived from
today's biology will /probably/ arrive within a few
years of us getting a decent AI, when the build-test-publish
cycles no longer have humans in them.

This will include programmable assemblers - though their
synthesis capabilities and temporal performance
characteristics are not obvious to me. General-purpose
assemblers may get used mainly for prototyping and
"speciality items" since they will probably not be
cost-effective for much else. There may be more
demand for "speciality items" at that point, though.

Molecular computers may arrive quite a while before this.

IMO, "20 years away" may be a bit optimistic - but
predicting the dates of AI breakthroughs is difficult,
and so it's hard to say for sure.
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