Re: Assembler... when?


"news.verizon.net" <NO@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
What is the latest "best" guestimate for the arrival of the first
assembler?

I'm no expert and don't play one on television, but it seems to me that at the
current rate of progress the first one will be turned on sometime around
3000 AD. Plus or minus 500 years.

Ten years ago, or so, the best estimates were 20 years.

Has that changed? What are the experts saying now?

There are experts?

The only thing that appears to have changed is that the fear of molecular
machines has increased with the passage of time. Also, if anyone has
proposed a compelling application to concentrate on then I'm not aware of
it. Absent any sort of focus, I suspect progress will be incredibly slow.

As best I can tell, progress toward molecular machines of any sort
(assemblers, factories, widgets, whatever) is so rare that even the "news"
section of the Foresight Nanotech Institute gets padded out with irrelevant
stories.

.

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