Re: Assembler... when?


"news.verizon.net" <NO@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
"Jim Logajan" <JamesL@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:UNmdnVTYhOch1RvVnZ2dnUVZ_jidnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"news.verizon.net" <NO@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
What is the latest "best" guestimate for the arrival of the first
assembler?

I'm no expert and don't play one on television, but it seems to me
that at the
current rate of progress the first one will be turned on sometime
around 3000 AD. Plus or minus 500 years.

Would you say Drexler's vision is dead and burried?

No. More people today are aware of and approve of that vision than ever
before - but it seems a fair number of people are also working to stop it
or somehow assert their control over it.

And if there is lab progress that goes beyond trying to build the
equivalent of molecular nuts and bolts, I haven't seen it.

I was obviously using hyperbole when I said 3000 years, but I do know that
projects involving less complexity in other fields using known techniques
can take years to develop a single product. I don't think anyone is even
near to winning Foresight Institute's Feynman Grand Prize. I'm not even
sure if anyone is even trying for it.

.

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