Re: The Nanotech Rapture


John Novak wrote:
On Jul 29, 7:43=A0pm, Tim Tyler <seemy...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Steve O'Hara-Smith wrote:

What if AI turns out to be impossible ?

!?! I do not spend much time on such hypotheticals.

Why not?

They are a stupid waste of time.

Although, to seriously consider the possibility of AI or its absence,
you'd have to define it with at least some precision, which I have not
seen you do.

What I said was:

``The level of AI that is needed is "self-improving AI" - AI that
can do R&D on itself.''

So when you say "AI" what exactly do you mean by that, and how do you
think we're going to get there?

What is my take on the AI roadmap? I don't have an essay on
that subject yet - and the scope of the question goes
considerably beyond a usenet post. FWIW, my views resemble
those of Peter Voss:

Voss & Yudkowsky
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-100407586383523968

Peter Voss - Singularity Institute Interview Series
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7015171070610461868

Increased Intelligence, Improved Life
http://www.singinst.org/media/singularitysummit2007/petervoss

Computing elements will be among the first usable nanotechnology -
and by my reckoning we'll probably have AI before we get down there.
Whether we need it or not, we will have it - and it will make quite
a difference.

What makes you think this?

That computing elements will be among the first usable nanotechnology?
Or that we will have AI before nanotech computers?
Or that AI will make quite a difference?

1 seems pretty obvious - computing elements are simple and in demand -
while sensors and actuators are more diverse components.

2 is more speculative. ISTM that we will have computer hardware
which is functionally considerably superior to the human brain
brain at an affordable cost before we switch to
nanotechnology-based hardware - which will facilitate building
AIs considerably - to the point where we actually do it.

3 again seems pretty obvious. Our brains are mostly what led to
our mastery of the planet - and they are only 3 times as big as
a chimpanzee brain. The impact of AI will be the result of a far
larger difference in intellectual capacity - and so will be enormous.
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