Re: The KLI Theory Lab - keywords - mathematical modelling--> Looking at History Through Mathematics

From: Sean Dean (seandean_at_seandean.com)
Date: 07/19/04 

Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 17:04:05 GMT

It seems to me that predicting historical outcomes would be exceedingly
difficult, although it makes a great science fiction idea! Assuming that we
boil the model down to actions and resources over time, and base the limits
of our array on death (zero state) and overpopulation (total depletion of
resources) , there are several aspects of the calculation that would have to
be quantifiable:
1. A precise measurement of independent actions, and their resulting
consequences
2. Measurement of resources at every given time
3. "Event" identifiers for both direct action, and consequences of inaction
4. A rudimentary constant for events that are not easily calculable, but
which have a profound effect on the system, i.e.. the book, "Uncle Tom's
Cabin", the teachings of Jesus Christ, Elvis Presley, John F. Kennedy's
speech to inspire the space program, etc.
5. A specific foreknowledge of environmental specifics (winter storms,
hurricanes, earthquakes)

Retrospective analysis for these conditions is available historically - and
difficult enough to model, but to project it into the future would be a
guessing game at the very best...... And that does not begin to encompass
the idea that human action and logical motivation tend to be mutually
exclusive concepts.....

Speaking of which, I see Rich does not think psychohistory is relevant
discussion for this group. I wonder, when (or do I mean if?) he is studying
chaos theory, does he consider ANY fictional hypothesis or real-world model
to be a conversationally relevant topic? - or does everything have to be
reviewed by independent committee and approved by Dr. Mandelbrot himself,
and published to gzip postscript before we decide to discuss it? Has he
ever read an Asimov story?

Happy Fractalling!

: )

sd

http://www.seandean.com

"Roger L. Bagula" <rlbtftn@netscape.net> wrote in message
news:40FBF285.2010509@netscape.net...
> Another link to references of Rashevsky's work.
> It becomes obvious that both von Bertalanffy and Asimov were inspired
> by this man's work.
>
> Rich wrote:
> > [Please do not mail me a copy of your followup]
> >
> > Relevance? None.
>
>
> --
> Respectfully, Roger L. Bagula
> tftn@earthlink.net, 11759Waterhill Road, Lakeside,Ca 92040-2905,tel:
> 619-5610814 :
> URL : http://home.earthlink.net/~tftn
> URL : http://victorian.fortunecity.com/carmelita/435/
>
>