Re: How to tell if a theory is a good one

From: Ilja Schmelzer (q6867901_at_mailstore.fernuni-hagen.de)
Date: 10/04/04 

Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2004 13:09:49 +0200

"Paul Draper" <pdraper@yahoo.com> schrieb
> But this isn't enough. There may be dozens of completely equivalent models
> that adequately describe the same known phenomena, both qualitatively and
> quantitatively. If this is all a theory does -- match evenly against an
> existing model -- then it is no good. Here again is where many
"alternative
> interpretations" fall flat.
>
> 5. A good theory has to *quantitatively predict* an observable behavior
that
> has not yet been measured, and preferably a behavior that is at odds with
> the predicted behavior of other proposed theories. If it fails to predict
> anything new, then it must be dismissed as a theory, no matter how well 1,
> 2, 3, and 4 are satisfied.

False. In this case, SR would have been a worthless theory in
comparison with the older Lorentz ether.

It may be reasonable to use "interpretation"
instead of "theory" to name the child. But that's all.

Historical preference does not make the old interpretation
better than the new one.

> In this sense, most of the string models and
> spin-network models of the universe are NOT good theories yet, because
they
> fail to make a verifiable prediction. In this sense, even the Standard
Model
> with the Higgs boson is not a very good theory yet, because one of its
> primary verifiable predictions (the Higgs boson) has not been confirmed
yet.

These two examples are also sufficient to prove you wrong.
I don't give a penny for string theory, and I don't believe into
the Higgs, but these are certainly physical theories.

> Alternative-theory-proposers: the onus is on you to make sure your model
> satisfies ALL FIVE of the above requirements. If it does not, then the
world
> has a complete right to summarily dismiss your conjecture.

It is nice to propose criteria for alternative theories which are
not fulfilled by the leading (in terms of number of publications
and man-years spend on it in professional theoretical physics)
theory. That's named double standard.

BTW, my theory (see gr-qc/0205035) fulfills all your requirements.

Ilja

Relevant Pages

  • Re: How to tell if a theory is a good one
    ... There may be dozens of completely equivalent models ... Historical preference does not make the old interpretation ... > fail to make a verifiable prediction. ... > primary verifiable predictions (the Higgs boson) has not been confirmed ...
    (sci.physics.relativity)
  • Re: How to tell if a theory is a good one
    ... There may be dozens of completely equivalent models ... Historical preference does not make the old interpretation ... > fail to make a verifiable prediction. ... > primary verifiable predictions (the Higgs boson) has not been confirmed ...
    (sci.physics)