Re: GOD=G_uv BAYESIAN P=99.9 %

From: Evgenij Barsukov (e-barsoukov2_hate_spam_at_ti.com)
Date: 07/29/04 

Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 09:13:59 -0500

George Hammond wrote:
> GOD=G_uv BAYESIAN P=99.9 %
>
> NOTE: Stephen Unwin PhD (physics/quantum gravity) is author of
> _The Probability of God_ (Crown Forum, 2003) in which he
> uses Bayesian probability theory to calculate that the
> probability is P=67% that God exists.
> A 1 page review of this book by Michael Shermer appears
> in the current (July) issue of Scientific American on
> page 46.
>
> In that SCIAM review the formula used is given as:
>
>
> P(bef) * D
> P(aft) = ----------------------------
> P(bef) * D + 100 - P(bef)
>
> where P(bef) = the prior probability (percent)
> P(aft) = the posterior probability (decimal)
> D = the liklihood ratio

The result of calculation depends on completely arbitrary selections
of D and P(bef). Set different values, get different probablity. What kind
of derivation is that??

The true derivation of Probability of God (which by the way was done in 1998, e.g.
4 years before Unwin) does not require any subjective parameters input and therefore
will give the same result for people, bacteria or eearh-worms. The resulting
number for Probability is 1-exp(-1)=0.632121(...). This is where Urwin probably has got the
number he has to "fit" parameters in his formula to...

Here is the links to original (1998) dervivation:

Considering that there is absolutely NOTHING as starting condition,
will ever something arise aout of it? Here is calculation of
probability for such event:
http://members.tripod.com/~sudy_zhenja/something_out_of_nothing.html

Now, as we know probability of creation of the most simple object, what about existance
of infinitely powerful, infinitely complex being, which you would properly call "God"?
See calculation here:
http://members.tripod.com/~sudy_zhenja/god_probability.html

Regards,
Evgenij 

-- 
__________________________________________________
*science&fiction*free programs*fine art*phylosophy:
http://sudy_zhenja.tripod.com
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