A CLIMATE-DESTABILIZATION COMPENDIUM

From: Dr. Jai Maharaj (usenet_at_mantra.com)
Date: 08/10/04 

Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 00:06:11 GMT

Forwarded message from prez@usa-exile.org

[ Subject: A Climate-Destabilization Compendium
[ From: prez@usa-exile.org
[ Date: 5 Aug 2004 22:44:12 -0500

 -From: Andy Caffrey <andy@starstreamcable.com>
 -Date: August 1, 2004 5:34:21 AM GMT+07:00
 -Subject: NRDC: New Science on Global Warming

http://nrdc.org/globalWarming/fgwscience.asp

               A Climate-Destabilization Compendium

Global Warming: In Depth: Index

New Science on Global Warming
A summary of recent findings on the changing global climate.

  In recent years, scientists have added considerably to the large
body of evidence that shows human activity is changing the global
climate, raising temperatures and affecting ecosystems around the
world. Here we summarize the most significant findings of the last
few years.

  Study of the global climate is one of our most complex scientific
endeavors. Yet we now know more than we ever have about humankind's
impact on earth's temperature. The news isn't good. Global average
temperatures have increased by 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit over the last
century -- warming faster than any time in the last 1,000 years. As a
result, the 1990s was the hottest decade in the last 1,000 years.

  Today, most mainstream scientists and scientific bodies agree that
heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) -- mainly from the
burning of fossil fuels in cars, power plants, factories, and homes
-- have caused temperatures to rise around the globe. Because
emissions of heat-trapping gases are expected to increase, scientists
predict temperatures to rise dramatically over the next century,
resulting in serious harm to life on our planet. Below are some of
the landmark scientific findings released over the last few years
that outline humankind's impact on earth's climate. Given this
growing body of evidence, we must act now to reduce pollution from
cars and power plants. Our health and the health of our planet depend
on it.

Satellite Data Confirms Climate Change
Nature 2004 429:7
  (May 2004)

Scientists at the University of Washington and the Air Resources
Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
found that satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperatures
show as much global warming as surface temperature measurements when
the data are analyzed correctly. The team made the discovery using a
new technique for separating the signals originating from the lower
and upper atmosphere. Previous efforts to measure temperature trends
using satellites suggested that the lower atmosphere is warming more
slowly than the earth's surface and have been repeatedly cited by
global warming skeptics. The new study found that the upper
atmosphere is cooling apparently due to increased heat trapping in
the lower atmosphere and stratospheric ozone depletion.

        * For more information: Nature website, "Climate Change" study.

Inside the Greenhouse: The Impacts of CO2 and Climate Change on
Public Health in the Inner City
  Harvard Medical School
  (April 2004)

A new report from the Center for Health and the Global Environment at
Harvard Medical School shows that residents of the inner city are
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and global
warming. The most direct threat is from heat waves. Exposure to
excessive heat caused over 8,000 deaths in the United States between
1979 and 1999, and the incidence of heat waves is expected to double
by the middle of this century if heat-trapping pollution is not
curtailed. Higher temperatures also elevate the level of ozone smog
in urban areas, which contributes to excess mortality and triggers
more asthma attacks. In addition, higher concentrations of carbon
dioxide, the primary heat-trapping pollutant that causes global
warming, has been shown to increase the formation of allergenic
pollen, which may increase the incidence of asthma and respiratory
allergies.

        * For more information: Full report

Climatology: Threatened Loss of the Greenland Ice-***
Nature 2004 428: 616
  (April 2004)

Unless heat-trapping emissions are reduced substantially, Greenland
is likely to warm by at least 3 degrees Celsius by the year 2100,
enough to trigger the complete and irreversible meltdown of the
Greenland ice ***, reported scientists in the April 8 issue of
Nature. The Greenland ice *** is second in size only to Antarctica,
and its complete meltdown could raise the global average sea level by
7 meters (23 feet). While the complete collapse of the Greenland ice
*** could take as long as 1,000 years, that process could become
inevitable by the end of this century.

        * For more information: Nature website, "Greenland
Ice-***" study.

NOAA 2003 Climate Report
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  (January 2004)

The most recent data show that 2003 tied 2002 as the second hottest
year on record, following 1998. The five hottest years have all
occurred since 1997 and the 10 hottest since 1990. Extreme heat waves
caused more than 20,000 deaths in Europe and more than 1500 deaths in
India during 2003.

        * For more information: Full report

Defusing the Global Warming Time Bomb
Scientific American
  (March 2004)

In the face of clear evidence that the earth's energy balance has
already been altered by pollution, Dr. James Hansen remains
optimistic about our ability to prevent dangerous global warming if
we act now. The Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies wrote in the March issue of Scientific American that global
warming can be controlled if we begin earnestly to improve our energy
efficiency and increase our use of renewable energy sources. Any
delay would be dangerous, Hansen argues, because an additional
warming of merely one degree Celsius could be enough to trigger the
eventual disintegration of ice sheets in Greenland and parts of
Antarctica.

        * For more information: Scientific American website

Global Warming: The Imperatives for Action from the Science of Climate Change
  Sir David King, Chief Scientific Adviser to the U.K. Government;
Address to the AAAS
  (February 2004)

Sir David King, the chief scientific adviser to the British
Government, sounded a similar note of urgency when he delivered a
plenary address at the American Association for the Advancement of
Science (AAAS) Annual Meeting in Seattle on Feb 13. The British
government has committed to reducing its emissions of heat-trapping
gases by 60 percent from 1990 levels by mid-century and is urging
other industrialized countries to adopt the same goal. Sir David
emphasized that the international community needs to work together
immediately, not only to stabilize the level of heat-trapping
greenhouse gases, but also to develop alternative technologies in
order to move away from our dependence on fossil fuels.

In his article published in the January 9, 2004, issue of Science Sir
David brings optimism by pointing out that reducing carbon emissions
"does not necessarily make us poorer. Between 1990 and 2000, Great
Britain's economy grew by 30 percent, employment increased by 4.8
percent, and our greenhouse gas emissions intensity fell by 30
percent." However, he stressed that delaying action will only make it
"more disruptive and more expensive" to deal with global warming.

        * For more information: British Embassy website

The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the West
Climatic Change 62 (1-3): 1-11
  (January 2004)
As the West Goes Dry
Science 2004 303: 1124-1127
  (February 2004)

The American West will have more wintertime floods and summertime
droughts if the climate continues to warm, according to scientists
reporting in the January issue of the journal Climatic Change. Over
the past 50 years, total snow accumulation in some locations in the
Cascade Mountains in Oregon and Washington has dropped by 60 percent
while spring melt is occurring earlier, with spring runoff in streams
throughout California's Sierra Nevada running as much as three weeks
earlier than it did in 1948.

Researchers predict that over the next 50 years, precipitation over
the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada will fall more as rain than snow
in winter, leading to a further decrease in snow accumulation by 30
percent to 40 percent and an increased risk of wintertime floods.

Throughout the West, higher temperatures will decrease snowpack and
cause spring runoff to start 30 to 40 days earlier than it does
today. A smaller snow reservoir and earlier spring runoff mean that
there will be less water to last through the summer. According to an
article published in the February 20, 2004, issue of Science, drier
summers are predicted to cause farmland values to drop by more than
15 percent in California. Fire danger is also expected to soar,
doubling the mean area burned over the next 80 years.

        * For more information: Climatic Change website,
article abstract; Science Magazine website, article abstract

Extinction Risk from Climate Change
Nature 2004 427:145-148
  (January 2004)

This study, the first comprehensive assessment of the extinction risk
from global warming, found that more than 1 million species could be
committed to extinction by 2050 if global warming pollution is not
curtailed. This ranks global warming alongside direct habitat
destruction as the greatest threats to global biodiversity. The
19-member research team featured expertise on ecosystems in five
diverse regions: Mexico's Chihuahuan Desert; Amazonia; Europe; South
Africa's Cape Floristic Region; and Queensland, Australia. The
scientists used information on the climate tolerances of species and
the well-known relationship between species diversity and habitat
area to project the effects of global warming under various
assumptions. Their mid-range estimates indicated that 24 percent of
existing species would eventually become extinct due to climate
change projected to occur by 2050. Fortunately this risk could be
significantly reduced by acting soon to reduce emissions of carbon
dioxide and other heat-trapping gases, according to the study.

        * For more information: Nature website, abstract of
"Extinction Risk" study

Modern Global Climate Change
Science 2003 302: 1719-1723
  (December 2003)

Two prominent U.S. government scientists, Dr. Thomas Karl of the
National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration and Dr. Kevin
Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, published
a paper in the December 5th issue of Science concluding that human
influences are the dominant factor in recent global warming and that
"in the absence of climate mitigation policies . . . the likely
result is more frequent heat waves, droughts, extreme precipitation
events and related impacts [such as] wildfires, heat stress,
vegetation changes and sea-level rise."

        * For more information: Abstract | Full Text

Human Impacts on Climate
  American Geophysical Union
  (December 2003)

The American Geophysical Union, the largest scientific organization
of earth scientists, issued a new position statement on December
16th, concluding that "Scientific evidence strongly indicates that
natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global
near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th
century." The drafting committee for this consensus statement
included John Christy, whose work to measure atmospheric temperatures
using satellites is often cited by global warming naysayers.

        * For more information: Full statement on climate change

Offsetting the Radiative Benefit of Ocean Iron Fertilization by
Enhancing N2O Emissions
  Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 30, no. 24, 2249
  (December 2003)

In recent years, researchers have been looking for ways to remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and sequester it somewhere where
it cannot contribute to global warming. One hypothesis has been that
"fertilizing" the ocean with extra iron would stimulate phytoplankton
in the ocean to absorb more carbon dioxide through photosynthesis.
Adding iron to the ocean will not reduce global warming, however,
according to a paper by Xin Jin and Nicolas Gruber in the December
15, 2003, issue of Geophysical Research Letters. As phytoplankton
remove extra carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in response to iron
fertilization, they also release nitrous oxide, a much more powerful
greenhouse gas, which offsets any benefits from absorbing carbon
dioxide.

        * For more information: Geophysical Research Letters website

An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United
States National Security
  U.S. Department of Defense
  (October 2003)

This Defense Department study, obtained by the media in February
2004, looked at the impact of abrupt climate change on national
security. Abrupt climate change is a worst-case scenario, which
scientists consider a plausible, though uncertain, consequence of
global warming. It draws heavily from a National Academy of Sciences
report published in 2002 which said the likelihood of crossing a
threshold that triggers abrupt climate change grows when the climate
is pushed hardest by rapid loading of the atmosphere with
heat-trapping pollution.

The authors of the report ordered by the Pentagon say that such a
scenario could lead to global food and water shortages that would
drive widespread migrations and border conflicts worldwide. While
scientists believe this extreme scenario has a low probability, the
serious economic, health, and environmental effects expected from
mainstream mid-range global warming forecasts are much more certain
and fully support prompt action to cut heat-trapping emissions. The
very high consequences that would result from the scenarios reported
to the Pentagon reinforce the importance of action now to reduce
these emissions.

        * For more information: Report on Environmental Media
Services website

Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants
A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across
Natural Systems
Nature v. 421: 37-42; 57-60
  (January 2003)

The relatively small global warming that has occurred to date has
already changed the habits or forced significant shifts in the range
of many species of birds, insects, fish and plants, according to the
authors of these two studies published in the prominent scientific
journal Nature . Such altered habits and forced moves -- to
everything from English butterflies, California Starfish, Estonian
birds, and Alpine herbs, could seriously disrupt a wide array of
ecosystems, the studies' authors said. On average, the species'
geographic ranges have shifted toward the poles at a rate of 4 miles
per decade and the species' spring events have shifted earlier by 2
days per decade. The breadth of data covered in the reports allowed
the authors to express their findings with a far greater certainty
than they could have a decade ago, they said.

The news is especially alarming considering such shifts have occurred
with an average increase of only 1 degree Fahrenheit over the last
century. "If we're already seeing such dramatic changes [among
species], it's really pretty frightening to think what we might see
in the next 100 years," Dr. Terry L. Root, a Stanford University
ecologist and lead author of one of the reports, told The New York
Times.

Scientists predict average global temperatures during the 21st
century could jump as much as 10 degrees if we do not cut emissions
of the heat-trapping gases that cause global warming. The studies
provide the latest compelling evidence that we must cut emissions of
heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to avoid widespread
ecological disruption. They were conducted by researchers at
Stanford, Wesleyan and the University of Texas, among others.

        * For more information: Nature website, abstract of
"Fingerprints" study; abstract of "Globally Coherent" study

Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapses
  National Snow and Ice Data Center
Satellite Spies on Doomed Antarctic Ice Shelf
  British Antarctic Survey
  (March 2002)

Scientists say the dramatic disintegration of a Rhode Island-sized
ice chunk off the Antarctic Peninsula earlier this year is most
likely the result of global warming. "With the disappearance of ice
shelves that have existed for thousands of years, you rather rapidly
run out of other explanations," Dr. Theodore A. Scambos, a
glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, told The New
York Times after the Larsen B shelf collapsed. ("Large Ice Shelf in
Antarctica Disintegrates at Great Speed," March 20, 2002.) Scambos
and other researchers said it was the first time in thousands of
years that the east coast of Antarctica had seen such sharp rises in
temperature and dramatic ice loss. Over the last 50 years, average
temperatures in the Antarctica Peninsula have risen by 4.5 degrees
Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius), four times the global average. The
unprecedented warming has led to a pattern of ice shelve loss on the
eastern side of the Peninsula not seen in 12,000 years, researchers
said. Scientists said they were also shocked by the speed with which
the Larsen B shelf disintegrated -- 1,200 square miles (3,000 square
kilometers) in 35 days.

        * For more information: Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapses
(NSIDC website); Satellite Spies on Doomed Antarctic Ice Shelf (BAS
website)

Other recent studies found cooling in central Antarctica, including a
January 13, 2002 report in Nature (Peter T. Doran) and the January
18, 2002 issue of Science Magazine (Slawek Tulaczyk). Critics have
used these studies to claim global warming is not taking place.
However, the authors of the Science and Nature studies reject such
claims. Variations in temperature will exist across any large
landmass. The researchers add that their data shows only that the
effects of global warming on Antarctica may prove harder to forecast
than anticipated. Doran told the San Francisco Chronicle that,
contrary to the insinuations, "global warming is real and happening
right now." ("Media Goofed on Antarctic Data," February 4, 2002.)

Climate of 2001 - Annual Review
  National Climate Data Center
WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2001
  World Meteorological Organization
  (December 2001)

Both these scientific bodies found earth's temperature for 2001 to be
the second hottest on record. In addition, nine of the 10 warmest
years since measurements were first kept in 1860 have occurred since
1990, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The
WMO also found that temperatures are currently rising three times as
fast as in the early 20th century. The agency attributed much of the
warming to heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide caused by the
burning of fossil fuels. "There are skeptics on everything, but
certainly the evidence we have today shows we do have global warming,
and that most of this is due to human action," Ken Davidson, the
director of the WMO's climate program told The New York Times after
the release of the report. The hottest year on record, according to
the organizations, was 1998, when average global temperatures were
58.1 degrees Fahrenheit. Average temperature for 2001 was 57.8
degrees, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

        * For more information: NCDC website; WMO website

Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions
  National Academy of Sciences
  (June 2001)

This report was requested by President Bush to determine whether
mankind's actions were causing global warming. The answer was a
resounding 'yes.' The blue ribbon panel found that "greenhouse gases
are accumulating in earth's atmosphere as a result of human
activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean
temperatures to rise." "Temperatures are, in fact, rising," the
report adds. The unanimous 11-member panel, which included previous
skeptics about global warming, said increasing temperatures posed a
problem to humans and ecosystems around the globe. They also said the
problem was getting worse. In addition, the panel stated scientific
confidence was "higher today than it was 10 or even 5 years ago" that
increased greenhouse gas concentrations were to blame for earth's one
degree temperature increase over the last 50 years. Human-induced
warming and associated sea level rise are expected to continue
through the 21st century, the group said, and national policy
decisions made now will influence the extent of the damage suffered
by humans and ecosystems later in this century.

        * For more information: Full study

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  (January and February 2001)

This United Nations-sanctioned panel of hundreds of scientists
released two landmark reports on climate change at the beginning of
2001. The first, known as the Working Group I Report on the
scientific basis of climate change, states unequivocally that
pollution (mainly from the burning of fossil fuels) causes climate
change. "Emissions of greenhouse gases...due to human activities
continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect
the climate," the study says. Global warming has caused sea levels to
rise, ocean heat content to increase, and snow cover and ice extent
to decrease, according to the study. This and other evidence led the
panel to conclude that "there is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to
human activities." The report also predicts that earth's average
temperature could rise by 3 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next
100 years. That increase would mark the most rapid change in 10
millennia. It would also be as much as 60 percent higher than the
IPCC predicted less than six years ago. The study found that warming
in the 20th century was most likely the greatest of the last 1,000
years, and that the 1990s was the hottest decade of the last
millennium.

The second report, "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability," is the most comprehensive look yet at the existing
and long-term effects of global warming. It predicts that rising
temperatures caused by the burning of fossil fuels could cause
large-scale and irreversible climate changes. Those changes include
altered ocean currents, slowed circulation of warm water in the North
Atlantic and a vast reduction of mountain glaciers and the Greenland
ice ***. The study also warns of savage floods, disrupted water
supplies, droughts, violent storms and the spread of cholera and
malaria as temperatures rise over the next century. Poor countries,
particularly those in Latin America, Africa and Asia would bear most
of the burden of extreme climate changes, which would further widen
the gap between poor nations and rich ones, the report concludes.
"Most of earth's people will be on the losing side," IPCC Co-Chair
and Harvard environmental scientist James McCarthy said of the
study's findings.

        * For more information: IPCC website

Climate Change Impacts on the United States
  National Assessment Synthesis Team
  (December 2000)

This study, ordered by Congress in 1990, offers the first
comprehensive assessment of how human-induced global warming will
affect the United States. The forecast is gloomy. "Increasingly,
there will be significant climate-related changes that will effect
each one of us," the study states. According to the report, if we
don't curb our emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide,
temperatures will rise between 5 and 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the
next century. That increase will cause, for example, alpine meadows
in the Rocky Mountains to disappear, sugar maple trees to vanish in
the Northeast, and greater risk from storm surges in the Southeast.
Rising temperatures will also exacerbate water shortages (especially
in the West) and cause New York City to steam in the summer like
Atlanta does now. Other likely impacts: coastal erosion, destructive
storm surges and the disappearance of barrier islands, all due to
rising sea levels.

        * For more information: Full study

Climate Extremes: Observations Modeling and Impacts
Science v. 289: 2068-2074
  (September 2000)

Extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heat waves and heavy
rainfall are expected to increase over the next 100 years, according
to a team of scientists from the National Climatic Data Center. Lead
author David Easterling notes that these changes will continue to
increase with the rise of "ever greater amounts of GHGs in the
atmosphere." Easterling and his colleagues reached their conclusion
after reviewing hundreds of studies that used data and climate models
to examine past and future changes in climate extremes. The report
found that such extreme events will cause sharply increased financial
losses in the United States and are likely to lead to the extinction
of more plant and animal species.

        * For more information: Extreme Weather Events to
Continue and Likely Increase; Effects on Society More Intense (NOAA
website)

Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1,000 Years
Science v. 289:270-277
  (July 2000)

Humans are the dominant force behind the sharp global warming trend
seen in the 20th century, according to this analysis of the climate
over the last 1,000 years. The report found that natural factors like
volcanic eruptions and fluctuations in sunshine, which were powerful
influences on temperatures in past centuries, can account for only 25
percent of the warming since 1900. The rest of the warming was caused
by human activity, particularly rising levels of carbon dioxide and
other heat-trapping gases, according to the study's author, Texas A&M
geologist Thomas J. Crowley. Crowley notes that "natural variability
plays only a subsidiary role in the 20th century warming and that the
most parsimonious explanation for most of the warming is that it is
due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases" (GHGs). The
study presents the most direct link to date between people and the
1.1 degree Fahrenheit rise in average global temperatures over the
last 100 years.

        * For more information: Full study

Last revised 6/22/04
Natural Resources Defense Council

End of forwarded message from prez@usa-exile.org

Jai Maharaj
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Om Shanti

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The terrorist mission of Jesus stated in the Christian bible:

     "Think not that I am come to send peace on earth:
I came not so send peace, but a sword.
     "For I am come to set a man at variance against his
father, and the daughter against her mother, and the
daughter in law against her mother in law.
     "And a man's foes shall be they of his own
household.
 - Matthew 10:34-36.

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